|Day's range||7,343.3696 - 7,398.5928|
|52-week range||5,750.5000 - 7,418.4302|
Trump also said the strong gains in the stock market since his election give him the opportunity to wage a trade war, noting: “We’re playing with the bank’s money.” U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors ignored criticism of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy by President Trump.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 7365.00 to 7348.00. One number to pay attention to today is last week’s close at 7393.00. Finishing under this level will produce a potentially bearish weekly closing price reversal top.
Trump’s comments are facing criticism. However, the criticism doesn’t seem to be centered on what he said, but rather on the fact that he called out the Fed.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 7404.00. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of the closing price reversal top and the subsequent confirmation.
The consistency in Powell’s message on Wednesday was the highlight of his testimony. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony. His hawkish message strongly supported the idea that the Fed will raise interest rates at least two more times in 2018. It was a bad day for the U.S. housing sector. U.S. homebuilding fell to a nine-month low in June and permits declined for a third straight month. The Fed’s Beige Book showed that manufacturers in every one of the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts worried about the impact of tariffs, even as the U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate to modest pace.
Look at the price action in the Treasury markets for the true assessment of the economy rather than to try to make a financial decision based on politics or what Trump said or did like others. Frankly, I don’t know how anyone can make a trading decision based on the emotions of the President. Some analysts continue to try to make everything the President says or does a trading issue, but I’ve never seen it baked into a trading system.
Powell’s speech with the semiannual report in the U.S. Congress contained an optimistic view on the economic outlook. Such a tone has reduced fears that trade wars will negatively affect economic valuations.
In conclusion, after reading Powell’s recent interviews and recent monetary policy statements, I am going to assume that he is going to say the economy is great, the Fed’s going to raise rates at least two more times this year and that the economy is essentially protected against the long-term impact of a trade war.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 7309.50.
On Monday, the dynamics of oil was in the spotlight on a combination of negative factors by both the potential demand and the supply part. Asian markets lose 0.5%-0.7% on Tuesday morning, global stocks mixed.
The cash stock market is expected to see big losses on the opening on Tuesday because it was closed when Netflix made the announcement that drove futures contracts sharply lower before Monday’s close. U.S. Core Retail Sales posted an impressive 0.5% gain, beating the 0.4% estimate. New Zealand’s consumer price index rose by 0.4% in the June quarter, below the 0.5% increase expected by the financial markets.
NEW YORK, July 16, 2018-- Nasdaq today announced that PepsiCo, Inc., will become a component of the NASDAQ-100 Index ® and the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index prior to market open on Monday, July 23, 2018. ...
U.S. retail sales posted a firm gain in June, helped by increases in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, solidifying expectations for robust economic growth in the second quarter. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunged below $69, dropping a whopping 3 percent after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said some oil buyers could get waivers to continue buying Iranian supplies despite American sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.
With the index closing at an all-time high, there is no resistance so the emphasis will shift to the chart pattern. If buyers take out 7414.25 then trader reaction to last week’s close at 7393.00 will determine the direction of the index this week.
Is Trade War Really A Good Thing For The US? The uncertainty surrounding the trade war between the U.S. and China has eased recently after the two world largest economies have signaled their intention to sit at the negotiation table. In addition, investors also started to realize that the effects of tariffs have substantially exaggerated.
The markets continue to be shackled by geo-political headwinds, with Trump at the center of it all, the U.S – Russian Summit, trade wars, Iran sanctions to name but a few of the U.S President’s handiwork.
With just over 5 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting thus far, earnings growth is up 16.37 percent. U.S. import prices fell the most in more than two years in June. U.S. consumer sentiment hit a six-month low as tariff worries more than doubled, dampening optimism over the economy. The preliminary data showed that consumer sentiment fell to 97.1, its lowest level since January. The Federal Reserve said Friday it expects low unemployment and rising inflation will keep it on track to raise interest rates at a gradual pace over the next two years. Finally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Friday he favors one more interest-rate hike this year, given current economic conditions.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 7382.75. The index is running a little hot, averaging more than 32 points per day since the main bottom at 6956.00. It needs to correct into a Gann angle soon or the rally will burn out and the next break will be even more dramatic.
As noted previously, broader US markets fell yesterday amid escalating US-China trade tensions. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) fell 0.55%, while NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) fell 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively. A vicious cycle seems to be building up in the trade war.
Today’s U.S. consumer inflation report didn’t trigger the same volatile response in the markets we saw from the U.S. producer inflation report on Wednesday, but nonetheless, it was impressive.
We’re going to stick with our outlook for higher stock prices because earnings carry more weight at this time than does the trade dispute. I don’t think we’re going to see any significant sell-off in the stock market until the impact of the tariffs starts to show up in the economic numbers, and even after that, in the projections by U.S. Federal Reserve Policymakers. Of course, if China places a tariff on U.S. crude oil imports then it will be a whole new ballgame and time to reassess my bullish outlook.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at 7212.00. This angle held earlier as support. Basically, we’re looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 7254.50 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 7212.00. Holding between these two numbers will indicate investor indecision.
This is a very important point because earnings actually represent stale data. They represent the earnings from last quarter. The third and fourth quarter results will be the first during the period of full tariffs from the U.S. on Chinese goods and the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods from China. They will tell the actual story about the impact of the tariffs on company earnings. So at this time, investors should be looking beyond last quarter earnings and at any guidance from companies that mention the impact of the tariffs.
Gold futures are edging lower early Friday with the news about the escalation of the U.S-China trade dispute, taking a backseat to the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1230 GMT. Traders expect the headline number to come in at about 195K versus 223K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8%. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise 0.3%.
On a holiday-shortened trading day, the tones coming from the last 24 hours of trading have suggested a risk-off attitude as Gold finds support around the 1240.00 area and Equities are some of Monday’s gains.