Yahoo Finance Powerball numbers you shouldn't pick if you want to win $200 million jackpot
If you do play Powerball this week, there’s an 'easy trick' you should use to reduce the odds of sharing the full prize.
Powerball, everyone is talking about it. There’s only been a handful of jackpots over $120 million in history and, every time, it has gone off. We’ve never made it beyond $160 million before. So, this is huge. But there’s a little problem for anyone buying a ticket: If you win, you probably won’t get $200 million.
Because $200m is not the prize for Division 1, it’s the prize pool. If more than one person gets the seven numbers right, they split the prize. And when the prize gets really high, so many people buy tickets that you have a high chance of multiple winners.
Now, sharing $200 million with another person is still a lot of money. But, if you didn’t buy a ticket two weeks ago when the jackpot was $100 million, think carefully about whether you really want to buy one this week.
Should you play this week?
In theory, a lottery can have a positive expected payoff. If you have a one-in-a-million chance of winning and the ticket costs $1, then your expected payoff will be positive whenever the prize is over $1 million.
For example, if the prize is $2 million, every ticket is a one-in-a-million chance of $2 million, so every ticket is worth $2, but costs only $1. The expected value is positive. You should buy as many tickets as possible.
But, if the prize is $500,000, every ticket is a one-in-a-million chance of $500,000, so every ticket is worth $0.50, but costs $1. The expected value is negative. You should buy no tickets.
To think about expected value, imagine a casino. It sets up the games so they have a positive expected value for itself and a negative expected value for us. The casino has an edge. That’s why the house always wins.
If the prize pool wasn’t shared, Powerball would have a positive expected payoff whenever the Division 1 prize was over $110 million.
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But what happens when the prize gets big in Powerball is that they sell way more tickets. Way more.
Look at the next chart. It shows that when the prize gets over $80 million, people get excited and they start to buy really crazy numbers of tickets.
There are 134 million different number combinations in Powerball. But they’re going to sell 300 million tickets. Most number combos will be on other people’s tickets too.
The odds say there will be probably two Division 1 winners, but maybe three. One winner is possible but unlikely, as is four winners taking home $50 million each. Also, it could still jackpot, if all those 300 million tickets are very, very unlucky! (The odds of it jackpotting again are 10.7 per cent by my calculations.)
If you win Division 1, which is a 1-in-134-million chance per combo sold, you will probably be jostling elbows with someone else as you collect the novelty cheque. And that’s enough to drag your expected value down below zero. You can expect to get back less than what you paid.
However, with such a big jackpot, the negative result is only just negative instead of very negative - like it usually is. Which means, if you’re only going to play Powerball once, this is the least worst week to play.
How to play Powerball smart
If you do play Powerball this week, there’s an easy trick you should use to reduce the odds of sharing the pot: choose number 1 as your Powerball number. Different numbers are popular among players. If you choose 7,8 or 12, a lot of other people will have that as their Powerball number and you’ll share the prize.
But 2 and 1 are unpopular numbers and, if you choose those, you are less likely to have the same numbers as another player. (Many people get their tickets filled randomly by computer so they are just as likely to choose 1 or 2 as any other number. But there are a lot of superstitious players who fill in their numbers themselves and they tend not to choose 1 or 2.)
Also note that my analysis is based on all draws, and it’s possible that it doesn’t apply so much in these big weeks when a lot of tickets are being sold and possibly more players are getting theirs chosen by computer.
Your chance of winning doesn’t change if you choose an unpopular Powerball. But your chance of sharing Division 1 should be lower. And that might be just enough to make it worth playing.
The information provided is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The information has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information on this website you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to your needs and situation.
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