Yahoo Finance US$5.50: That's What Analysts Think Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AYTU) Is Worth After Its Latest Results
Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AYTU) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The results overall were pretty good, with revenues of US$28m exceeding expectations and statutory losses coming in at justUS$0.06 per share, some 67% below what the analyst had forecast. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Aytu BioPharma
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aytu BioPharma's single analyst is for revenues of US$109.5m in 2023, which would reflect a credible 6.9% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 68% to US$0.44. Before this earnings announcement, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$110.1m and losses of US$0.49 per share in 2023. Although the revenue estimate has not really changed Aytu BioPharma'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.
The consensus price target fell 31% to US$5.50despite the forecast for smaller losses next year. It looks like the ongoing lack of profitability is starting to weigh on valuations.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Aytu BioPharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 61% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Aytu BioPharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analyst seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aytu BioPharma's future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aytu BioPharma has 3 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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