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uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

It's been a sad week for uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$5.59 in the week since the company reported its annual result. The results were mixed overall, with revenues slightly ahead of analyst estimates at US$16m. Statutory losses by contrast were 3.1% larger than predictions at US$6.59 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for uniQure

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering uniQure are now predicting revenues of US$58.0m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 266% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 33% to US$4.31. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$64.3m and US$4.04 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on uniQure after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

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The average price target fell 25% to US$22.62, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for uniQure's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic uniQure analyst has a price target of US$37.48 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.01. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that uniQure's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 266% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 26% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that uniQure is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded uniQure's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for uniQure that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.