Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the LSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Ashtead Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Ashtead Group worth?
According to my valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 38%, trading at UK£41.89 compared to my intrinsic value of £30.35. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Ashtead Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Ashtead Group generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Ashtead Group's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 33%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in AHT’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe AHT should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on AHT for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for AHT, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you'd like to know more about Ashtead Group as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Ashtead Group you should be aware of.
If you are no longer interested in Ashtead Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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