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UBS (UBS) Down 2.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UBS (UBS). Shares have lost about 2.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UBS due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

UBS Group AG's Q3 Earnings Impress on Lower Expenses

UBS Group AG reported third-quarter 2021 net profit attributable to shareholders of $2.3 billion, up 9% from the prior-year quarter.

The company’s performance was supported by an 18% increase in the net fee and commission income, year over year, along with a 12% rise in the NII. Also, net credit loss release acted as a tailwind. Moreover, drop in expenses was a positive.

Performance of almost all the segments of UBS Group AG, except the Asset Management segment, was impressive during the quarter. It recorded higher profitability in the Global Wealth Management, Investment Bank and Personal & Corporate Banking segments.

Operating Income Climbs, Expenses Fall

UBS Group AG’s operating income increased 2% to $9.13 billion from the prior-year quarter. Operating expenses edged down 1% to $6.3 billion in the third quarter. This fall was due to lower personal expenses, general and administrative expenses as well as depreciation and impairment of property, equipment and software.

The company reported net credit loss releases of $14 million in the quarter as against the expense of $89 million witnessed in the year-ago quarter.

Business Division Performance

Global Wealth Management’s operating profit before tax was $1.5 billion, up 43% year over year. Higher recurring net fee income and net new fee-generating assets supported the company.

Asset Management’s operating profit of $214 million slumped 71%, year over year, primarily due to lower performance fees, as well as exclusion of the $571-million gain from the sale of a majority investment in Fondcenter AG (now Clearstream Fund Centre AG) in the third quarter of 2020. Also, invested assets dropped 1.5% sequentially to $1.15 trillion.

Personal & Corporate Banking reported operating profit before tax of $478 million, up 43% year over year. Revenues from credit card and foreign-exchange transactions mainly boosted the transaction-based income, marking a gradual rise in travel and leisure spending by clients as pandemic restrictions ease.

The Investment Bank unit’s operating profit before tax was $837 million, up 32% from the prior-year quarter, on solid Advisory and Capital Market revenues and lower expenses. However, lower revenues from Global Markets were an offsetting factor.

Group Functions incurred an operating loss before tax of $180 million in the reported quarter compared with the loss of $184 million witnessed in year-ago quarter.

Strong Capital Position

As of Sep 30, 2021, UBS Group AG's invested assets improved 16% at $4.5 trillion. Total assets increased slightly to $1.09 trillion from the previous quarter.

The company’s CET 1 ratio was 14.9 % as of Sep 30, 2021, compared with 13.3% on Sep 30, 2020. CET 1 capital increased 18% to $45 billion. Fully applied risk-weighted assets increased 6.8% to $302.4 billion from the year-ago quarter.


Fourth Quarter

Notwithstanding any interest-rate headwinds, the management estimates NII to remain sequentially flat.

In the fourth quarter, it expects to repurchase shares worth $600 million.

Management projects an increase in cost due to seasonal effects as seen in prior years.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

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