Advertisement
Australia markets closed
  • ALL ORDS

    8,082.30
    -67.80 (-0.83%)
     
  • ASX 200

    7,814.40
    -66.90 (-0.85%)
     
  • AUD/USD

    0.6695
    +0.0015 (+0.22%)
     
  • OIL

    80.00
    +0.77 (+0.97%)
     
  • GOLD

    2,419.80
    +34.30 (+1.44%)
     
  • Bitcoin AUD

    100,010.59
    +253.79 (+0.25%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,369.58
    -4.27 (-0.31%)
     
  • AUD/EUR

    0.6155
    +0.0016 (+0.26%)
     
  • AUD/NZD

    1.0905
    -0.0001 (-0.01%)
     
  • NZX 50

    11,699.79
    -28.27 (-0.24%)
     
  • NASDAQ

    18,546.23
    -11.73 (-0.06%)
     
  • FTSE

    8,420.26
    -18.39 (-0.22%)
     
  • Dow Jones

    40,003.59
    +134.21 (+0.34%)
     
  • DAX

    18,704.42
    -34.39 (-0.18%)
     
  • Hang Seng

    19,553.61
    +177.08 (+0.91%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    38,787.38
    -132.88 (-0.34%)
     

The three-year decline in earnings for Beach Energy ASX:BPT) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 23% over that period

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) share price is up 17% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 9.6% (not including dividends).

While the stock has fallen 4.8% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Beach Energy

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

ADVERTISEMENT

During the three years of share price growth, Beach Energy actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 7.0% per year.

So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

It could be that the revenue growth of 3.3% per year is viewed as evidence that Beach Energy is growing. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. If you are thinking of buying or selling Beach Energy stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Beach Energy's TSR for the last 3 years was 23%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Beach Energy shareholders are down 1.6% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 4.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 1.6% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. Before forming an opinion on Beach Energy you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.