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Shareholders of Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) Must Be Delighted With Their 596% Total Return

Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. For example, the Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX:FMG) share price is up a whopping 366% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. In more good news, the share price has risen 3.2% in thirty days. But this could be related to good market conditions -- stocks in its market are up 10% in the last month.

View our latest analysis for Fortescue Metals Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

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During five years of share price growth, Fortescue Metals Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 30% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 36% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:FMG Past and Future Earnings April 29th 2020
ASX:FMG Past and Future Earnings April 29th 2020

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Fortescue Metals Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Fortescue Metals Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 596%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Fortescue Metals Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 91% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 47%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Fortescue Metals Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Fortescue Metals Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.