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Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited's (ASX:RWC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 43% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Reliance Worldwide is AU$8.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

  • Reliance Worldwide's AU$5.76 share price signals that it might be 30% undervalued

  • Our fair value estimate is 56% higher than Reliance Worldwide's analyst price target of US$5.30

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited (ASX:RWC) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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View our latest analysis for Reliance Worldwide

Is Reliance Worldwide Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$156.5m

US$158.7m

US$202.7m

US$255.5m

US$266.5m

US$275.5m

US$283.7m

US$291.5m

US$299.0m

US$306.4m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x4

Analyst x5

Analyst x3

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ 3.37%

Est @ 3.00%

Est @ 2.75%

Est @ 2.57%

Est @ 2.45%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.8%

US$145

US$137

US$162

US$189

US$183

US$176

US$168

US$160

US$152

US$145

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.6b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$306m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.8%– 2.2%) = US$5.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$5.6b÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)10= US$2.6b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$4.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$5.8, the company appears quite good value at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
ASX:RWC Discounted Cash Flow March 18th 2024

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Reliance Worldwide as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.222. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Reliance Worldwide

Strength

  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.

  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

  • Earnings declined over the past year.

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.

Opportunity

  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.

  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Reliance Worldwide, we've compiled three essential items you should consider:

  1. Financial Health: Does RWC have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

  2. Future Earnings: How does RWC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.