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RBA rates: Absolutely no hike in January

Eliza Bavin
·Personal Finance Editor
Updated ·2-min read
RBA governor Philip Lowe looking concerned inset with an image of a calendar page for January 2023 with a red cross through it.
The RBA will not make any changes to the cash rate in January. (Source: AAP/Getty)

Millions of mortgage holders will get some reprieve with no move in interest rates set to happen in January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) won’t hike interest rates again next month as the board always takes a break in January.

But the relief might be short-lived when the central bank meets for the first time next year in February.

So, when will the RBA next hike rates? It depends who you ask but the experts have weighed in.

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According to the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, 14 per cent of the experts asked believe the cash rate has now peaked after yesterday’s decision and Aussies might be able to start the new year fresh.

A further 6 per cent believe the cash rate will peak in February, assuming the RBA hikes again that month.

But the majority of respondents (17 per cent) felt rates are likely to hit their peak in either March 2023 or June 2023. Which means there could be another five rate hikes on the cards next year.

The majority of panellists who weighed in (83 per cent) believed the cash rate would peak between 3.25 per cent and 4 per cent, with more than two thirds (71 per cent) expecting it would peak in the first half of 2023.

Tomasz Woźniak from the University of Melbourne is forecasting an incredible six further consecutive hikes to the cash rate.

"The combined forecasts from 36 bond-yield curve models using monthly and weekly data indicate that the cash rate is bound to increase steadily until around June next year and reach 4 per cent, with a likely range from 3.2 - 4.8 per cent,” Woźniak said.

"It will stay at this level by the end of 2023. The models predict an upward trend for the next several months, which translates to a likely rise in December that would allow for avoiding a sharper movement in February.”

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