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Is There An Opportunity With A.G. BARR p.l.c.'s (LON:BAG) 44% Undervaluation?

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, A.G. BARR fair value estimate is UK£10.18

  • Current share price of UK£5.70 suggests A.G. BARR is potentially 44% undervalued

  • Analyst price target for BAG is UK£6.50 which is 36% below our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of A.G. BARR p.l.c. (LON:BAG) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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View our latest analysis for A.G. BARR

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF (£, Millions)

UK£31.3m

UK£34.4m

UK£43.6m

UK£47.8m

UK£50.8m

UK£53.3m

UK£55.4m

UK£57.2m

UK£58.8m

UK£60.2m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x4

Analyst x4

Analyst x4

Analyst x2

Est @ 6.33%

Est @ 4.93%

Est @ 3.94%

Est @ 3.25%

Est @ 2.77%

Est @ 2.43%

Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%

UK£29.6

UK£30.6

UK£36.6

UK£37.8

UK£37.9

UK£37.5

UK£36.8

UK£35.8

UK£34.7

UK£33.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£351m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£60m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.0%– 1.6%) = UK£1.4b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£1.4b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= UK£777m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£1.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£5.7, the company appears quite good value at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at A.G. BARR as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for A.G. BARR

Strength

  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

  • Currently debt free.

  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Beverage market.

Opportunity

  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market.

  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For A.G. BARR, there are three important aspects you should further research:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for A.G. BARR that you should be aware of before investing here.

  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for BAG's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.