The Eurozone crisis has a pattern of making key marker-posts right around Thanksgiving.
It really started, arguably, on Thanksgiving 2009, when Dubai World defaulted, and everyone started wondering which sovereign would go bust next. The answer everyone came to: Greece.
Then last Thanksgiving was a particularly hairy time.
Note this chart of French 10-year yields. The recent peak was right on November 23, 2011 (Via Bloomberg).
It was just a few days after that (in early December, 2011) when the ECB announced its 3-year LTRO program, which played a crucial role in preventing the banking system from going bust.
When we did our overview of the big stories in the world right now, The European crisis got the shortest examination, in part because it seems neverending, and unchanging. Another crucial European Finance ministers meeting. Another bailout. Another breakthrough.
But actually the bigger point is that a lot of progress has been made in the last year. Despite a recent downgrade, and a negative Economist cover, nobody worries about French bond yields these days. And despite being a basket case that hasn't asked for aid yet, Spanish yields are (fairly) time. Nobody's freaking out too much about Italy.
And the bigger picture beyond that is that Europe moves pretty slowly, but is actually going in the right direction, with a much more expansive ECB that has the potential to backstop the various governments. So it remains a wreck, and the world is frustrated with the pace of advance. But it's not just a static crisis. Just something being dealt with slowly. The Eurozone was decades in the making. It has a gigantic structural flaw, and it won't be solved in just a couple of years.
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