Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W). The company's stock saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s examine Wayfair’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
What's the opportunity in Wayfair?
The stock is currently trading at US$118 on the share market, which means it is overvalued by 45.7% compared to my intrinsic value of $81.06. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Wayfair’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Wayfair generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -0.5% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Wayfair. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? If you believe W is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on W for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Wayfair. You can find everything you need to know about Wayfair in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Wayfair, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.