Yahoo Finance Match Group, Inc. Just Recorded A 8.6% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Shareholders might have noticed that Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to US$29.82 in the past week. Match Group reported US$860m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.44 beat expectations, being 8.6% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Match Group
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Match Group from 25 analysts is for revenues of US$3.56b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 3.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 14% to US$2.13 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.18 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$42.16, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Match Group analyst has a price target of US$55.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Match Group shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Match Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Match Group'shistorical trends, as the 4.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 5.6% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Match Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Match Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Match Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$42.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Match Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Match Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Match Group .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
