Yahoo Finance Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Last week, you might have seen that Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to US$26.09 in the past week. Marathon Oil reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.6b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.52, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Marathon Oil
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Marathon Oil's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$6.88b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 11% to US$2.77. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.82 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$33.96, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marathon Oil at US$45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$24.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Marathon Oil's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Marathon Oil'shistorical trends, as the 9.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 9.6% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 2.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that Marathon Oil is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Marathon Oil going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Marathon Oil (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
