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LIVE COVERAGE: Brexit results

Trevor Treharne

With some investors anticipating a ‘Black Friday’ on the markets if Britain votes to leave the European Union today, Yahoo7 Finance news editor Trevor Treharne gives you the ‘Brexit’ polling results as they come in and the live impact on Australian markets.

Please hit refresh for the latest updates.

FINAL RESULT:

REMAIN: 48.11% (16,141,241 votes)
LEAVE:
51.89% (17,410,742 votes)
DECLARED:
382/382

4.10pm That's us done. We hope you've enjoyed our live coverage. This was quite some result and most of the experts, including the market, did not see it coming. We'll be unpacking what this means for Australia, Europe and the rest of the world in coming weeks.

4.08pm This is what the various areas of the UK voted, yellow is Remain, blue is Leave. It's very blue!

Source: BBC

4.04pm So that's 17,410,742 votes for Leave, giving them 51.89% of the result. 16,141,241 votes for Remain, giving them 48.11%.

4.02pm Cornwall has Leave at 56.8% too.

3.58pm Basingstoke and Deane vote 51.9% Leave. Come on Cornwall, just you to go.

3.51pm Mr. Abbott chipping in.

3.44pm Wealden Leave 54.5%, Northampton Leave 58.4%. Two to go!

3.32pm Results still to come from Cornwall. Basingstoke and Deane, Wealden and Northampton.

3.31pm Leave won the majority of votes in England and Wales, while every council in Scotland saw remain majorities.

3.27pm Leave now at 17,061,744, Remain 15,864,555. Four results to go.

3.16pm With five results to go, Leave has 16,992,701 votes, Remain has 15,812,943.

3.12pm Another side story here is Scotland. As they wish to be EU members they'll be pushing for another independence referendum.

3.05pm Leave has 16,835,512 votes, Remain has 15,692,093. Eight results to come, but Leave has got past that 16.8m mark so Britain will leave the EU.

3.02pm Britain votes to leave the European Union!

2.58pm Leave hits 16,738,813 votes, need just 37,665 votes to win.

2.54pm Yikes indeed!

2.51pm Leave need just 308,519 votes to confirm their victory.

2.50pm Some of the latest results. These areas not getting much attention with the result all but confirmed.

Source: BBC

2.46pm Might be worth revisiting this story now, here's how a Brexit could impact on Australia.

2.44pm So Leave hits 16,403,186 votes. It needs 16.8m. Remain on 15,328,123.

2.42pm BBC journalist James Landale shares a picture of the Remain party bar.

2.39pm For context on that Pound drop, it's a bigger fall than was suffered during Black Wednesday in 1992.

2.37pm What about the future of the EU now? I think we can assume that a few other countries with eurosceptic populations will be pushing for a similar vote.

2.33pm Just 24 results to come and Leave has 15,991,507 votes and Remain has 14,890,095 votes.

2.28pm Some more results. Nearly there!

Source: BBC

2.22pm The Pound hits lowest level in 31 years.

2.21pm Leave up to 15,580,755 votes, Remain at 14,439,820 votes.

2.16pm The Pound to the Aussie here.

2.13pm These are what the counted votes are saying...

Source: BBC

2.09pm 71.8% turnout, 22,160 rejected ballots.

2.07pm BBC are predicting 52% Leave, 48% Remain.

2.05pm The Aussie to the US dollar

2.01pm Some more results.

Source: BBC

1.52pm The ASX. Look away now!

1.48pm ITV and Sky News doing the same now.

1.44pm BBC calling it.

1.39pm Latest results.

Source: BBC

1.34pm So Leave needs 16.8 million votes to seal the win. They have 12,751,576 currently. Remain on 11,944,720.

1.25pm Betting market now. Look at that cross-over!

1.21pm Latest results.

s
s

Source: BBC

1.19pm Pound versus US dollar now lowest level since 1985.

1.15pm Some 500,000 votes separating Leave from Remain. Surely too much to make up?

1.11pm The pounding of the Pound...

1.08pm Perhaps the most interesting side story here is what happen to British PM David Cameron? Surely he can't survive this? With Boris Johnson, who led the Leave campaign, the most likely man to lead the government as it detaches itself from the EU.

1.01pm Nigel Farage: "I now dare to dream". This is not a drill people, it looks very much like the UK is leaving the EU.

1.00pm ITV's Leave probability up to 80%.

12.59pm More results, more Leave in Three Rivers, Portsmouth, Teignbridge and South Staffordshire. The latter by 68.8%.

12.52pm Latest results.

Source: BBC

12.49pm Very eventful day in Britain.

12.40pm It's a bit early to call a post mortem, but seeing the markets get this vote this wrong is quite something. Leave now odds-on at the bookies.

12.34pm Huge Remain vote in Edinburgh, 74.4% In.

12.32pm Latest results.

Source: BBC

12.27pm Betfair now has Leave as a 62% chance. It was a 10% chance this morning.

12.21pm ITV reporting that there is a 75% probability of a Leave win.

12.19pm Some of the latest results.

Source: BBC

12.16pm And here is how the Pound is tracking to the Aussie...

12.13pm And to back up his point, the state of the UK Pound...

12.12pm Yahoo7 contributor Stephen Koukoulas...

12.06pm A few Leave wins, we return to London and Westminster gets Remain by 69%. And so it goes on.

12.02pm Latest results...

Source: BBC

11.54am A pattern is emerging. We go round the UK and Leave wins, we go back to London and Remain gets even. Islington 75.2% Remain.

11.51am We thought this would be close, but after 84 results Remain leads by just 13,765 votes.

11.46am Betting market continues to move to Leave.

11.40am ASX now down 132 points...

11.31am Latest results, Leave getting more areas, but Remain getting big wins in large areas.

Source: BBC

11.29am London is being huge for Remain, 76.2% overall there.

11.27am Massive Remain win in Wandsworth, 75.03%. Huge few minutes for the Remain camp.

11.24am Glasgow has been a massive win for Remain (66.6%) and for the first time in a long time Remain is winning.

11.21am The ASX is heading in one direction.


11.10am So there are 32 areas of London to be counted, only one has been counted so far (City of London) and that was 75.3% Remain. London will need to replicate that across the board to save the Remain camp here.

11.02am And after that a flurry of Leave areas...

Source: BBC

10.56am MASSIVE win for Remain in City of London, 75.3%. As I said, London could decide this. (That's not the whole of London though, other areas of London to come).

10.55am Here's UKIP leader Nigel Farage at the polling station earlier. This was before the results started coming in, so he sounds a little defeatist here.


10.53am Latest results...

Source: BBC

10.47am Ignore the 10.40am update when I said Remain were pulling it back!

10.46am And another big win for Leave in Basildon, 68.6%.

10.44am Massive win for Leave in Hartlepool, 69.96% Leave! They really don't like the EU in Hartlepool. They were expected to vote 51.6% Leave, that's a huge difference. Very positive for Leave.

10.40am Remain are puling this back slightly. Last three areas all picking them.

Source: BBC

10.35am Betting market treading with caution. Still at 65% chance of Remain.

10.33am Some Aussie Twitter reaction here.

10.30am The latest results here.

Source: BBC

10.28am Pound still on the down...

10.25am West Dunbartonshire, which was expect to be a massive Remain win, has indeed done that. 62% Remain.

10.21am South Tyneside another huge win for Leave! 62% out, only 38% in.

10.20am Leave are seeing the type of swings towards them in every area which suggests it will be replicated across the country. Still 372 areas to declare though.

10.13am As we said, London is going to be huge in this vote...

10.11am Some very glum looking faces in the Remain camp at the moment. Plenty of votes to come though.

10.08am Kettering, 61% Leave, 39% Remain.

10.02am Results so far...

Source: BBC

10.00am Leave looking more likely by the minute.

9.55am Swindon, Leave 54.7%, Remain 45.3%. 

9.49am Isles of Scilly, In 803, Out 621.

9.40am What happens in London could decide this. London is expected to vote Remain, but will need big turnout.

9.37am Betting markets shift to Leave after that Sunderland result.

9.30am Results so far...

 Source: BBC

9.23am Those results have sent the pound tumbling! Very quickly!

 

9.17am Leave, 61.34%. Remain, 38.66%.
9.12am  So an early lead for Remain, but that Newcastle result is pretty interesting. Was supposed to be a Remain stronghold there and there was nothing in it.

9.06am Orkney Islands, Leave 36.8%, Remain 63.2%.

9.02am Newcastle-upon-Tyne has beaten Sunderland to count first! 129,002 votes. In: 50.70%, Out 49.30. Newcastle was expected to be won by Remain by more than that (11.8% margin), so that's actually a good result for Leave.

8.59am What's going on in the social media world? Here's what British PM David Cameron, who is in the Remain camp, has said:

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, also in the Remain camp:

Boris Johnson, the Tory MP and possible future PM if Leave happens, who has led the Leave campaign too:

And (obviously) in the Leave camp, UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage:

8.47am While we wait for the real action to start, why not peruse some of our local Brexit coverage?

This is how a Brexit could impact on Australia.

Here’s a piece where we asked seven Aussie economists if Britain should leave the EU.

This is Yahoo7 Finance contributor David Taylor’s column this week on the Brexit.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop on if the Brexit would be good or bad for Australia.

And finally this is what billionaire investor George Soros thinks will happen if the Brexit happens, including a ‘Black Friday’ on the markets, a recession, everyone simultaneously stubbing their toes, all our hair falling out and various other scary things.

8.37am Gibraltar. IN: 19,322. OUT: 823. 20,172 votes.

8.35am Gibraltar will be first up and they look almost ready to go.

8.33am The City always knows first right? The Pound is tracking up nicely against the US dollar, suggesting the City think Remain has this in the bag.


8.23am
Sunderland is a Leave stronghold though. And it's just early postal votes. However, a little peak of excitement for Leave there.

8.22am Cat. Pigeon. Amongst.

 

8.17am An interesting side story here is that polls can be pretty unreliable (as the 2015 General Election in the UK proved), but the betting market has had Remain as steady favourites all along (see below). With an Aussie election coming, we are seeing close polls too, but the current government a very short price at the bookies to get back in. Both the Brexit and the Aussie election will give us a good idea over if the pollsters or the punters are better at calling election results.

 

8.15am On those close polls I mentioned, here’s what some of the final polls said. Tighter than a Joe Hockey budget!

8.00am Good morning! Today is a significant one for the markets and the future of the world's largest trading block. If Britain votes to leave the European Union (EU) it’s expected to impact markets across the world, especially Australia.

So, here are four big questions to kick us off: why does this impact Australia (and you!)? What exactly is going to happen today? Why is this even happening? And will the Brexit actually happen?

Firstly, the impact on Australia. We have seen a rocky past week or so on the ASX as Brexit fears first spiked last week and eased heading into this week. Even the chance of a Brexit invited a sell-off, so if it actually happened we could expect extreme short-term volatility and longer term uncertainty. There will also be an impact on the Aussie dollar to the Pound. We’ll keep you posted on the value of the dollar and the ASX at large as the day goes on.

Secondly, what is going to happen? Voting has taken place all day in Britain and the polls closed at 10pm UK time (7am AEDT today). Brits have either voted ‘Remain a member of the European Union’ or ‘Leave the European Union’.

We can expect the first results at midnight in the UK (9am AEDT). The Isles of Scilly, off England’s southwest coast, and Gibraltar are due to be up first.

Then at 12.30am UK / 9.30am AEDT the real action starts! Sunderland and Newcastle will be doing their standard cross-city rivalry to see who can announce their results first. However, this isn’t a general election obviously, it’s the total number of votes that counts – it doesn’t matter how many individual areas each side wins.

What will the early results tell us? For example, Sunderland is expect to vote ‘Leave’ as a city, with polls suggesting a 6.2% margin over ‘Remain’. How close/far away the Sunderland result is will give us a rough early indication on how things might pan out. If ‘Leave’ wins Sunderland by 12/13% then that’s a massive boost for ‘Leave’ overall. If Sunderland only votes ‘Leave’ by 1/2% then ‘Remain’ will be more than happy with that.

Thirdly, why is this happening? Growing discontentment with the EU parliament and immigration from the EU to Britain has forced the referendum. British Prime Minister David Cameron has been drawn into the bizarre process of not wanting to leave the EU, but calling a referendum to do exactly that, then campaigning to remain in the EU in the referendum he called! A lot of pressure has come from far-Right political party UKIP (UK Independence Party) – think One Nation in Australia.    

Fourthly, will the Brexit actually happen? The polls are tight, so it’s too tight to call. As a general rule in such referendums, there is usually a 3-5% swing to the status quo in the final results (think 2014’s Scottish independence referendum, 1999’s Australian republic referendum etc.) The latest polls on the day have done exactly that with YouGov saying a 52/48 split for Remain. In that case you would expect Remain to get over the line, but there are so many other variables on the day, such as what will the ‘undecided’ do at the polls? What about the overseas voters, there are no polls for them, what do they want? And what will voter turnout be as that could decide who wins (Leave has an older demographic which will get out and vote, Remain has a younger demographic which might not)?      

Any questions or comments throughout the day, email me directly: trevortr@yahoo-inc.com

In the meantime, here are a couple of 'Brexit' explainer videos: