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Such Is Life: How BOK Financial (NASDAQ:BOKF) Shareholders Saw Their Shares Drop 50%

BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 21% in the last month. But that is minimal compensation for the share price under-performance over the last year. The cold reality is that the stock has dropped 50% in one year, under-performing the market.

See our latest analysis for BOK Financial

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

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During the unfortunate twelve months during which the BOK Financial share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.0%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.

It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.

BOK Financial's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NasdaqGS:BOKF Income Statement April 23rd 2020
NasdaqGS:BOKF Income Statement April 23rd 2020

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered BOK Financial's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. BOK Financial's TSR of was a loss of 49% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that BOK Financial shareholders are down 49% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 5.2%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5.6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for BOK Financial (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

BOK Financial is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.