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Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s (TSE:KEI) Analyst Just Slashed Next Year's Estimates

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (TSE:KEI), with the covering analyst making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analyst has soured majorly on the business.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Kolibri Global Energy from its lone analyst is for revenues of US$60m in 2024 which, if met, would be a huge 27% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to shoot up 49% to US$0.72. Prior to this update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$104m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.40 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analyst is a lot more bearish about Kolibri Global Energy's prospects, administering a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

See our latest analysis for Kolibri Global Energy


The analyst made no major changes to their price target of CA$9.80, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Kolibri Global Energy's valuation.


These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kolibri Global Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kolibri Global Energy'shistorical trends, as the 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 20% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that Kolibri Global Energy is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. While the analyst did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Kolibri Global Energy after the downgrade.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Kolibri Global Energy's business, like its declining profit margins. Learn more, and discover the 1 other warning sign we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.