The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For instance the Aptiv PLC (NYSE:APTV) share price is 112% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! It's also good to see the share price up 18% over the last quarter.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over the last three years, Aptiv failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 20% (annualized).
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.
It may well be that Aptiv revenue growth rate of 9.6% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Aptiv is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that Aptiv returned a loss of 8.6% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 12%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 6% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Aptiv (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
We will like Aptiv better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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