A former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor has made a grim prediction about where interest rates could go. It's been on hold at 4.35 per cent since November and homeowners have winced through 13 rate rises since May 2022.
A poll of more than 3,000 Yahoo Finance readers found 53 per cent of people are struggling with their mortgages and they're desperate for an interest rate drop, especially in a cost of living crisis. But Philip Lowe believes rates could go up due to inflation.
He told the Australian Financial Review the fight against inflation "isn't done" yet and the RBA might use an interest rate rise to push it down.
Are you struggling to keep up with your mortgage? Email stew.perrie@yahooinc.com
"I understand that most people hope the peak has been reached and it may well have, but it might not have," he said. "People have been asking me [about rates] through the course of the year and I've been reminding them there is still two-way risk."
The RBA will meet this week to decide what it will do with interest rates.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the first quarter of 2024 revealed yearly inflation now sits at 3.6 per cent, which is still well above the RBA's 2-3 per cent target.
It's clear the hard work of reducing inflation is starting to pay off though as the 3.6 per cent annual CPI rate in the 12 months to March is lower than the 4.1 annual rate seen up to the December 2023 quarter, and far smaller than the peak 7.8 per cent rate in the December 2022 quarter.
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Big Four banks’ interest rate predictions
But the CPI data released last month saw major banks push back their forecasts for an interest rate drop.
Here's when the big four believe we'll see some mortgage relief, according to Rate City.
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Commonwealth Bank (CBA): 0.25 per cent drop in November, then dropping to 3.10 per cent by December 2025
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Westpac: 0.25 per cent drop in November, then dropping to 3.10 per cent by December 2025
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NAB: 0.25 per cent drop in November, then dropping to 3.10 per cent by November 2025
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ANZ: 0.25 per cent drop in November, then dropping to 3.60 per cent by June 2025
CBA originally suggested there could be three 0.25 percentage point cuts this year, with the first to come in September, but it is now only factoring in one because inflation isn't falling fast enough.









