Yahoo Finance Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Shareholders in Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 21% to US$8.15 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$191m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit US$0.47 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Heritage Insurance Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Heritage Insurance Holdings' three analysts is for revenues of US$798.3m in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.50, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$770.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.43 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 30% to US$10.00per share. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Heritage Insurance Holdings analyst has a price target of US$11.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Heritage Insurance Holdings'historical trends, as the 8.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 8.5% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.0% per year. So although Heritage Insurance Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Heritage Insurance Holdings following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Heritage Insurance Holdings analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Heritage Insurance Holdings that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
