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Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI) After Its Half-Yearly Results

It's been a pretty great week for Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI) shareholders, with its shares surging 17% to AU$0.14 in the week since its latest half-year results. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 7.2% short of analyst estimates at AU$147m, although statutory losses were somewhat better. The per-share loss was AU$0.0012, 91% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aurelia Metals

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Aurelia Metals, is for revenues of AU$303.3m in 2024. This implies a discernible 6.3% reduction in Aurelia Metals' revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 25% to AU$0.011. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$317.1m and losses of AU$0.0035 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Aurelia Metals after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

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The average price target was broadly unchanged at AU$0.19, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aurelia Metals at AU$0.22 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$0.15. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aurelia Metals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aurelia Metals is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Aurelia Metals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Aurelia Metals (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.