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Gold Prices Recoil From 15-Week High as Trump Speech Looms Ahead
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Talking Points:
Gold prices recoil from 15-week high as Trump speech looms
Fiscal policy bets to overshadow Fed-speak, US GDP figures
Crude oil prices may break deadlock on EIA report, API data
Gold prices turned sharply lower in late North American trade, erasing prior gains that brought the metal to the highest level since mid-November to finish the day fractionally lower. The move played out inversely of a parallel rebound in the US Dollar and US Treasury yields.
Tellingly, the reversal occurred after the day’s stock of US news-flow was exhausted. This means it probably reflected the unwinding of near-term bets against the so-called “Trump trade”, which envisions an inflationary fiscal program steepening the Fed rate hike cycle, ahead of the US President’s speech tomorrow.
From here, another busy day of Fed commentary (Harker, Williams, Bullard) as well as the release of revised fourth-quarter US GDP figures are on tap. Significant follow-through seems unlikely until after Mr Trump concludes his remarks to a joint session of Congress.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to tread water as expected absent fresh news-flow shaping expected supply trends. The outlook has been clouded as traders weigh up the conflicting influence of an OPEC output cut accord and swelling swing production, especially in North America.
Price action may get a bit more active in the day ahead as the EIA publishes monthly supply statistics and API releases weekly inventory flow data. President Trump’s speech may also prove impactful in that it will probably move the greenback. If the move is sizable, that may echo into USD-denominated oil prices.
What does retail traders’ gold positioning say about the price trend? Find out here!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern after hitting the highest level in nearly four months, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. A daily close below the 1239.19-45.35 area (trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) opens the door for a test of resistance-turned-support at 1218.90. Alternatively, a breach of the 38.2% level at 1263.15 exposes the 50% Fib at 1277.53.
Chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices continue to mark time, failing to follow through after the completion of a bullish Triangle chart pattern. From here, a daily close above the 55.21-65 area (January 3 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 50% level at 57.18. Alternatively, a turn below Triangle top resistance-turned-support at 53.64 exposes trend line support doubling as the Triangle floor, now at 52.26.
Chart created using TradingView
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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