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First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSE:FR) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSE:FR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.7% to CA$9.97. Revenues were US$107m, with First Majestic Silver reporting some 3.6% below analyst expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for First Majestic Silver

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering First Majestic Silver is for revenues of US$502.9m in 2024. This implies a perceptible 3.8% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 40% to US$0.10. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$516.7m and US$0.08 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on First Majestic Silver after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

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There was no major change to the consensus price target of CA$10.38, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic First Majestic Silver analyst has a price target of CA$11.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$10.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that First Majestic Silver is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.1% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - First Majestic Silver is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at First Majestic Silver. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple First Majestic Silver analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for First Majestic Silver you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.