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ExxonMobil (XOM) May Beat on Q1 Earnings: Stock to Gain?

Zacks Equity Research
Updated

Oil giant ExxonMobil Corporation XOM is set to report first-quarter 2017 results on Apr 28, before the opening bell.

Last quarter, the company reported earnings of 90 cents per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. The quarterly earnings also increased from year-earlier quarter earnings of 67 cents per share. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model shows that ExxonMobil is likely to beat on earnings this time because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.  

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +1.18%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 86 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 85 cents. This is very meaningful and a leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Note that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3  have a significantly higher chance of beating on earnings. The combination of ExxonMobil’s favorable Zacks Rank and a positive Earnings ESP makes us confident about an earnings beat.

Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.  

Factors to Consider this Quarter

Exxon Mobil is the world’s best run integrated oil company based on its track record of high return on capital employed. This is supported by the company’s large scale of operations and diversification benefits. Also, the company’s existing oil and gas development project pipeline is among the best in the industry. These factors should continue to support the company’s bottom-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter as well as in the future.

Following the shale revolution, the area along the Gulf Coast, which boasts plentiful supply of oil and gas, regained focus. ExxonMobil is expected to capitalize on the availability of cheap natural gas to manufacture chemicals as well as energy efficient plastics for export. In other words, the company will cater to the growing demand for chemicals and refined fuels by taking advantage of the shale revolution. Hence, the company is expected to generate significant cash flows from its downstream operations in the to-be-reported quarter as well as in the long run.

Share Price Movement

Shares of ExxonMobil have outperformed the Zacks categorized Oil & Gas-International Integrated industry in the last three months. During the aforesaid period, ExxonMobil stock lost 4.5%, while the broader industry registered a decrease of 5.3%. It remains to be seen how the stock fares after the first-quarter earnings release.

Other Stocks to Consider

ExxonMobil is not the only company looking up this earnings season. Here are some other firms that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Tallgrass Energy GP, LP TEGP has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #1. The partnership is expected to release earnings on May 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release earnings on May 4.

Cimarex Energy Co. XEC has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank #5. The partnership is expected to release earnings on May 8.

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Tallgrass Energy GP, LP (TEGP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Cimarex Energy Co (XEC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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