Yahoo Finance Experience Co (ASX:EXP) shareholders have endured a 39% loss from investing in the stock five years ago
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Experience Co Limited (ASX:EXP), since the last five years saw the share price fall 44%.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Experience Co
Experience Co isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over half a decade Experience Co reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 13% for each year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 8% compound, over five years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. It is possible for businesses to bounce back but as Buffett says, 'turnarounds seldom turn'.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Experience Co stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Experience Co's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Experience Co shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 39%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Experience Co shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 25% over the last year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 7% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Experience Co is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
