With the election out of the way- market focus now falls back on the deepening crisis in Europe with ECB President Mario Draghi noting today that “the latest data suggest that these developments are now starting to affect the German economy.” The remarks gave way to a sell-off in broader risk assets with the EURUSD breaking below the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2794. Shorts off this mark triggered limits at the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the July advance at 1.2740.
This level remains paramount for the euro as it represents the confluence of long-term Fibonacci support and channel support dating back to mid-October. A close below this mark (possibly triggered by a catalyst-ECB rate decision, Greek vote) exposes our primary objective at the three way confluence of the 100-day moving average, the S2 monthly pivot, and the August highs at 1.2630/35.
*Use caution ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision- But if Draghi fails to ease market concerns, look for the break of 1.2740 to trigger shorts against the 200-day moving average at 1.2823. Should the President’s remark offer solace for investors, look for a move higher with break above the 200-day moving average targeting the 1.2885 pivot level.
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com
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