Estimating The Fair Value Of Woolworths Group Limited (ASX:WOW)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Woolworths Group Limited (ASX:WOW) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Woolworths Group

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$1.82b	AU$1.99b	AU$2.18b	AU$2.28b	AU$1.95b	AU$1.96b	AU$1.98b	AU$2.01b	AU$2.03b	AU$2.06b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 0.5%	Est @ 0.91%	Est @ 1.2%	Est @ 1.4%	Est @ 1.54%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.1%	AU$1.7k	AU$1.8k	AU$1.8k	AU$1.8k	AU$1.5k	AU$1.4k	AU$1.3k	AU$1.3k	AU$1.2k	AU$1.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$15b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$2.1b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.1%– 1.9%) = AU$50b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$50b÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)¹⁰= AU$28b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$43b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$33.8, the company appears about fair value at a 3.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Woolworths Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.820. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Woolworths Group, we've compiled three further elements you should explore:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 4 warning signs for Woolworths Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for WOW's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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