Yahoo Finance Estimating The Fair Value Of Tredegar Corporation (NYSE:TG)
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Does the June share price for Tredegar Corporation (NYSE:TG) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Tredegar
Crunching the numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $39.57 | $36.81 | $35.31 | $34.59 | $34.38 | $34.52 | $34.90 | $35.45 | $36.14 | $36.92 |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -11.15% | Est @ -6.99% | Est @ -4.07% | Est @ -2.03% | Est @ -0.6% | Est @ 0.4% | Est @ 1.1% | Est @ 1.59% | Est @ 1.93% | Est @ 2.17% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.87% | $36.35 | $31.06 | $27.37 | $24.63 | $22.48 | $20.74 | $19.26 | $17.97 | $16.82 | $15.79 |
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $232.45m
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$37m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (8.9% – 2.7%) = US$618m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$618m ÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)10 = $264.32m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $496.77m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of $15.01. Relative to the current share price of $16.41, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tredegar as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.03. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Tredegar, There are three additional factors you should further research:
Financial Health: Does TG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of TG? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
