Estimating The Fair Value Of DRDGOLD Limited (NYSE:DRD)

Key Insights

• DRDGOLD's estimated fair value is US$5.57 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of US$6.64 suggests DRDGOLD is potentially trading close to its fair value

• When compared to theindustry average discount of -395%, DRDGOLD's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of DRDGOLD Limited (NYSE:DRD) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for DRDGOLD

Is DRDGOLD Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (ZAR, Millions)	R749.8m	R828.7m	R895.5m	R952.2m	R1.00b	R1.04b	R1.08b	R1.12b	R1.15b	R1.18b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 14.06%	Est @ 10.53%	Est @ 8.06%	Est @ 6.33%	Est @ 5.12%	Est @ 4.27%	Est @ 3.68%	Est @ 3.26%	Est @ 2.97%	Est @ 2.77%
Present Value (ZAR, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	R668	R658	R633	R599	R561	R521	R481	R443	R406	R372

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = R5.3b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = R1.2b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (12%– 2.3%) = R12b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= R12b÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= R3.8b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is R9.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$6.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at DRDGOLD as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.108. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for DRDGOLD

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Currently debt free.

• Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.

• Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.

Opportunity

• DRD's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.

Threat

• Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For DRDGOLD, we've put together three essential aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for DRDGOLD (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to consider before investing here.

2. Future Earnings: How does DRD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.