Yahoo Finance Errol Spence Jr. vs. Danny Garcia betting preview: Best bets for welterweight title fight
Greatness has been predicted for Errol Spence Jr. by various boxing experts since the moment he turned pro in 2013 following his run at the 2012 Olympic Games in London.
Though he’s left-handed, he’s often been compared to Sugar Ray Leonard, the International Boxing Hall of Fame member who is one of the 10 greatest boxers who has ever lived. Like the charismatic Leonard, there is little that the 26-0 Spence can’t do in the ring.
His 21 knockouts speak of his power. He’s an accurate puncher and a thinker in the ring who understands the nuances of the game and how to walk his opponents into his shots.
On Saturday, in the main event of an anticipated pay-per-view card at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Spence will risk his IBF and WBC welterweight titles as well as his perfect record against Danny “Swift” Garcia.
Garcia is, along with Shawn Porter, the toughest opponent that Spence has faced. The odds on BetMGM, which have Spence as a -450 favorite currently, are more reflective of his upside than of any negative toward Garcia, who is +340.
Spence, though, is an unknown commodity in that this is his first fight in 14 months following a horrific car accident in the early morning hours of Oct. 10, 2019. Spence’s Ferrari tumbled end-over-end and he suffered serious, though not life threatening, injuries.
As much as I love Spence’s talent, and I love it enough that I have him No. 4 on my Yahoo Sports pound-for-pound list behind only Canelo Alvarez, Terence Crawford and Naoya Inoue, there is no way I want to lay -450 to win $100 when I’m not 100 percent certain of his health.
Spence has repeatedly said he is fine and that he’s fully recovered from his accident, but the odds are too big for my liking to take that kind of a risk.
Fully healthy, I think Spence would outbox Garcia and win a decision. Garcia is 36-2 and his only two losses came by disputed decisions and easily could have been wins. He hits hard, has a good jab and knows how to control the range and distance. Moreover, he’s shown he knows how to fight southpaws.
He also fights with a chip on his shoulder, which should come in handy against Spence, who is the big story this week and the center of attention.
Garcia could create some problems for Spence if he is able to drop in a lead right every now and then. Garcia’s footwork is good enough to get outside of Spence’s lead foot and create an opening for the lead right.
Spence, though, is a wily fighter who will probably look to attack the body. He’s got a powerful hook and a hook to the body followed by a hook to the head is a combination that figures to work for him.
Given Spence’s injury and the stout chin that Garcia has shown in his first 38 fights, my guess is that the fight goes the distance.
So I’m going to lay 121 to win $100 on Spence to win by decision. I like the fight to go the full route, but I don’t want to lay nearly 3-1 on that. At BetMGM New Jersey, over 11 full rounds is -278. That’s too rich for my blood so I’ll pass, but if you are more willing to lay that number, I think the fight goes the entire distance.
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