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Over the last month the Eden Innovations Ltd (ASX:EDE) has been much stronger than before, rebounding by 50%. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 78% in the last three years. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. Of course the real question is whether the business can sustain a turnaround.
With just AU$2,431,139 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Eden Innovations to have proven its business plan. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, they may be hoping that Eden Innovations finds fossil fuels with an exploration program, before it runs out of money.
We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. We can see that they needed to raise more capital, and took that step recently despite the fact that it would have been dilutive to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Eden Innovations has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.
Eden Innovations had liabilities exceeding cash when it last reported, according to our data. That put it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. But with the share price diving 21% per year, over 3 years , it's probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed or they are worried about dilution with the recent cash injection. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Eden Innovations' cash levels have changed over time.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Eden Innovations had a tough year, with a total loss of 16%, against a market gain of about 3.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Eden Innovations (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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