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Did You Miss Citadel Group's (ASX:CGL) 57% Share Price Gain?

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The Citadel Group Limited (ASX:CGL) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 19% in the last quarter. But don't let that distract from the very nice return generated over three years. To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 57% during that period.

See our latest analysis for Citadel Group

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

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Citadel Group was able to grow its EPS at 15% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We note that the 16% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ASX:CGL Past and Future Earnings, May 7th 2019
ASX:CGL Past and Future Earnings, May 7th 2019

We know that Citadel Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Citadel Group, it has a TSR of 67% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Pleasingly, Citadel Group's total shareholder return last year was 15%. That includes the value of the dividend. The TSR has been even better over three years, coming in at 19% per year. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.