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Despite Its High P/E Ratio, Is CML Group Limited (ASX:CGR) Still Undervalued?

Today, we'll introduce the concept of the P/E ratio for those who are learning about investing. We'll apply a basic P/E ratio analysis to CML Group Limited's (ASX:CGR), to help you decide if the stock is worth further research. CML Group has a P/E ratio of 15.64, based on the last twelve months. That means that at current prices, buyers pay A$15.64 for every A$1 in trailing yearly profits.

View our latest analysis for CML Group

How Do I Calculate A Price To Earnings Ratio?

The formula for P/E is:

Price to Earnings Ratio = Share Price ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Or for CML Group:

P/E of 15.64 = A$0.47 ÷ A$0.030 (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2018.)

Is A High Price-to-Earnings Ratio Good?

A higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying a higher price for each A$1 of company earnings. That is not a good or a bad thing per se, but a high P/E does imply buyers are optimistic about the future.

How Does CML Group's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?

We can get an indication of market expectations by looking at the P/E ratio. You can see in the image below that the average P/E (15.3) for companies in the diversified financial industry is roughly the same as CML Group's P/E.

ASX:CGR Price Estimation Relative to Market, July 25th 2019
ASX:CGR Price Estimation Relative to Market, July 25th 2019

That indicates that the market expects CML Group will perform roughly in line with other companies in its industry. So if CML Group actually outperforms its peers going forward, that should be a positive for the share price. Checking factors such as director buying and selling. could help you form your own view on if that will happen.

How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios

P/E ratios primarily reflect market expectations around earnings growth rates. That's because companies that grow earnings per share quickly will rapidly increase the 'E' in the equation. That means even if the current P/E is high, it will reduce over time if the share price stays flat. So while a stock may look expensive based on past earnings, it could be cheap based on future earnings.

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It's nice to see that CML Group grew EPS by a stonking 26% in the last year. And earnings per share have improved by 19% annually, over the last five years. With that performance, I would expect it to have an above average P/E ratio.

A Limitation: P/E Ratios Ignore Debt and Cash In The Bank

Don't forget that the P/E ratio considers market capitalization. Thus, the metric does not reflect cash or debt held by the company. Hypothetically, a company could reduce its future P/E ratio by spending its cash (or taking on debt) to achieve higher earnings.

Such expenditure might be good or bad, in the long term, but the point here is that the balance sheet is not reflected by this ratio.

So What Does CML Group's Balance Sheet Tell Us?

CML Group has net debt worth a very significant 108% of its market capitalization. If you want to compare its P/E ratio to other companies, you must keep in mind that these debt levels would usually warrant a relatively low P/E.

The Verdict On CML Group's P/E Ratio

CML Group trades on a P/E ratio of 15.6, which is fairly close to the AU market average of 16.4. While it does have meaningful debt levels, it has also produced strong earnings growth recently. However, the P/E ratio implies that most doubt the strong growth will continue.

When the market is wrong about a stock, it gives savvy investors an opportunity. As value investor Benjamin Graham famously said, 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.' So this free report on the analyst consensus forecasts could help you make a master move on this stock.

But note: CML Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20).

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.