Copper Close to Testing $10,000 as BHP Bid Points to Supply Risk

(Bloomberg) -- Copper made a fresh push toward five digits as BHP Group Ltd.’s blockbuster offer to buy Anglo American Plc lent support to bulls who say the metal is headed for long-term shortages and high prices.

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The world’s biggest miner has proposed a $39 billion takeover of Anglo, chiefly targeting its smaller rival’s South American copper mines. The size and timing of the bid — with copper up 16% this year — is a stark sign of how resources giants are trying to muscle in on a commodity that’s crucial to green industries.

“A lack of new mined copper resources is a major obstacle for the energy transition and mining companies are facing growing resistance to building new mines, forcing them to merge to achieve growth,” Yongcheng Zhao, principal copper analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, wrote in an emailed note.

Copper has surged in April amid optimism about a recovery in global manufacturing, and despite signs of softness in the physical market, especially in China. Investment from hedge funds taking a longer-term view on prices will help to sustain gains, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reiterated a forecast that prices will hit an all-time high of $12,000 over the next 12 months, while BlackRock Inc. fund manager Olivia Markham said in an interview Wednesday that miners will be reluctant to push the button on new projects if prices remain below that level.

Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.9% to $9,948 a ton by 11:15 a.m. in Shanghai, having spent most of this week fluctuating just below $10,000 a ton. Zinc was up 1%, while other metals were steady.

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