While Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NASDAQGS, rising to highs of US$33.15 and falling to the lows of US$20.25. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Shoe Carnival's current trading price of US$20.85 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Shoe Carnival’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Is Shoe Carnival still cheap?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Shoe Carnival’s ratio of 4.15x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 5.79x, which means if you buy Shoe Carnival today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe Shoe Carnival should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Shoe Carnival’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Shoe Carnival generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Shoe Carnival's revenue growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? SCVL’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at SCVL? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on SCVL, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for SCVL, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Shoe Carnival.
If you are no longer interested in Shoe Carnival, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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