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If Australian property prices keep growing at this rate, they'll be breaking all-time highs by the start of next year

Jack Derwin
  • House prices are rising at such a meteoric rate that it's a few short months until old records are obliterated, according to property research house CoreLogic.
  • If the current rate of growth continues, Melbourne will be at another peak as of January next year, with Brisbane and Sydney both on track to recover their own in the months following.
  • Nationally, property values would be back in just six months, marking a huge turnaround from the start of this year, when they were still declining.

Property prices are soaring in Australia like it's 2015.

While that may be welcome news for investors, it's bound to startle wannabe first homebuyers. Not least of which because at this rate, prices look set to hit new heights in the first half of next year.

"If housing values continue to rise at the same rate recorded over the past three months, national dwelling values could reach a new record high in six months time," CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said in a note issued to Business Insider Australia.

In just the last quarter, values have jumped by an astounding 2.9% -- just under 1% per month. If that pelt was to continue, the losses experienced in the last two years would be entirely regained by around April next year.

READ MORE: House prices keep rocketing higher as mortgage rates return to 1950s levels – but it's unclear how long the party will last

Of all the capital cities, Melbourne looks to be the next to set a new record for prices.

"If the current run rate of growth continues, Melbourne’s housing market will recover in January," Lawless said. "Dwelling values across Melbourne’s Inner precinct were only 1.5% below their peak in October, and this sub-region is on track set a new valuation benchmark by the end of November."

Brisbane, on the other hand, is only experiencing mild gains but due to the nature of its minor correction, will be the second capital to bounce back.

"The past three months of gains – 1.1% or 0.4% per month – has put Brisbane housing values on a path to recover within the next 4 months," Lawless said.

Meanwhile Sydney – due to the size of its falls – has a bit longer to wait. Despite prices racing up 5% over the quarter, they currently they sit around 10% below their 2017 peak.

"Sydney’s housing market is on track to post a recovery within six months, or around April next year if the current pace of growth continues."

Adelaide, on the other hand, has already hit record highs in its North and South regions, while the rest of the city looks due for a sluggish recovery.

"The same can’t be said of Hobart and Canberra which are the two capitals where housing values are already at new record highs. Hobart values recorded only a mild correction of 1.3% from peak to trough, with the market reaching a new record high in October 2019," Lawless said.

"Similarly, Canberra housing values recorded a peak to trough decline of only 1.5% during the downturn, and moved through a new record high in September this year."

The last two cities, Darwin and Perth, have been completely out of sync with the remainder of the country since 2014, where they have been floundering in the doldrums.

They'll just have to watch on in awe as the rest of the country looks set to go mad with real estate fever once again.