The Australian dollar went back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to dance just above the 50 day EMA, but below the vital 0.7250 level. The 200 day EMA is approaching that level, and I think what we are getting ready to see is a bit of sluggish grinding. This typically will lead to some type of pullback. If that’s going to be the case, I anticipate that we could go down towards the 0.70 level. However, there is the alternate scenario that we break above the 200 day EMA, which by definition would be a change in trend.
AUD/USD Video 11.01.19
I anticipate that we need more of a concrete settlement between the Americans and the Chinese to get the Australian dollar excited, and then on top of that you would need to see Chinese economic numbers stronger. Right now, they simply are not so I don’t think the Aussie has a very long shelf life on an extended run. I do recognize that the Federal Reserve is starting to soften its stance, but at this point it’s not until we see reasons out of China to go higher that the Australian dollar will get longer term relief. At this point, I anticipate that a below the 50 day EMA is probably the sell signal you are looking for, or perhaps exhaustion around the 0.7250 handle. All in all, I’m not overly impressed by this pair and am fairly ambivalent.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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