The AUD/USD is trading lower as investors continue to react to the divergence between the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Earlier in the session, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said in a speech in Sydney that improved expectations for demand are driving a pickup in non-mining business investment, helping to buoy the post mining-boom economy.
Debelle also noted that some firms had been less willing to take risks since the financial crisis, choosing to reduce debt and increase cash holdings rather than invest.
Finally, Debelle added that expectations for demand around the world were also improving: “With any luck, it will be sustained. This will be timely for the Australian economy as the mining investment story draws to its close.”
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Downside momentum suggests the market is on a path to challenge last week’s low at .7627 and the main bottom at .7624. A trade through the main bottom will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the next target the July 5 bottom at .7571.
The short-term range is .7624 to .7729. Its 50% level or pivot is .7676. Trading below this level is helping to give the market a downside bias.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the current price at .7642, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7676. Look for the downside momentum to continue as long as the Forex pair remains below this level.
Overtaking .7676 will signal the presence of buyers. This move would represent a dramatic shift in momentum. This could trigger a move into .7729. Taking out this top will change the main trend to up.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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