Yahoo Finance Analysts Are Updating Their Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$167m beat estimates by a substantial 33% margin. Unfortunately, Moderna also reported a statutory loss of US$3.07 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Moderna after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Moderna
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 23 analysts covering Moderna is for revenues of US$4.20b in 2024. This implies a not inconsiderable 18% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 56% to US$6.91. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$4.21b and US$7.25 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
The average price target held steady at US$139, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Moderna, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$310 and the most bearish at US$59.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 24% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 40% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Moderna is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Moderna's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$139, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Moderna going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Moderna is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
