As you might know, Anaergia Inc. (TSE:ANRG) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Unfortunately, Anaergia delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CA$42m were 19% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 225% to CA$0.11 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Anaergia's six analysts is for revenues of CA$231.9m in 2022, which would reflect a huge 51% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 56% to CA$0.096. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CA$231.9m and CA$0.096 per share in losses.
As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of CA$20.29, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Anaergia analyst has a price target of CA$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Anaergia's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 128% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Anaergia is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Anaergia going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Anaergia has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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