When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For instance, the price of Lepidico Limited (ASX:LPD) stock is up an impressive 267% over the last five years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 69% gain in the last three months.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
Lepidico recorded just AU$4,084,027 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Lepidico will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Lepidico investors have already had a taste of the sweet taste stocks like this can leave in the mouth, as they gain popularity and attract speculative capital.
When it last reported its balance sheet in June 2021, Lepidico could boast a strong position, with cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$4.3m. That allows management to focus on growing the business, and not worry too much about raising capital. And with the share price up 63% per year, over 5 years , the market is focussed on that blue sky potential. You can see in the image below, how Lepidico's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).
It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. However you can take a look at whether insiders have been buying up shares. If they are buying a significant amount of shares, that's certainly a good thing. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Lepidico's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Lepidico hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 303% exceeds its share price return of 267%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Lepidico shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 91% over one year. That's better than the annualised return of 32% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Lepidico .
Lepidico is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.