What US Crude Oil Output Suggests

Last week, the oil rig count fell by one to 866, just three below its three-and-a-half-year high. The US oil rig count tends to follow US crude oil prices, with a three- to six-month lag. In February 2016, US crude oil prices fell to their lowest closing level in 12 years. Between February 11, 2016, and yesterday, US crude oil active futures rose 175%. The oil rig count reached a six-and-a-half-year low of 316 in May 2016. Between May 27, 2016, and September 21, 2018, the oil rig count rose ~174.1%, and between May 27, 2016, and September 14, 2018, US crude oil production rose ~24.8%.