Market trends, presidential debate, bank dividends: Asking for a Trend

Friday was another big day on Wall Street, with major indexes (^DJI,^GSPC, ^IXIC) closing slightly lower for the day.

One of the big topics of discussion was the presidential debate. President Joe Biden's poor performance has some Democrats calling for him to drop out of the race, Axios national political correspondent Alex Thompson talks about what's next for Biden and why First Lady Jill Biden plays a pivotal role.

A number of big banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) announced they will raise their dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's bank stress test.

The 2024 Summer Olympics are right around the corner. Arctic Wolf CEO and president Nick Schneider shares his insight into the preparations being made to prevent cyberattacks from impacting the games.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here.

Video transcript

Hello and welcome to ask you for a trend.

I'm Josh flip in for the next half hour.

We're going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow.

There is a lot to keep track of.

So we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve.

Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving right into and just like that, we're halfway through 2024 and the market is all about a year to date.

The tech heavy NASDAQ has led gains among the broader indices and now of course, investors are looking for a broad rally in the latter half of the though the November election could complicate the market's momentum.

Plus after a muted performance from Biden in last night's debate, some are wondering if the president can make it another four years.

The decision to drop out of the race is entirely up to Biden says Pimco's Libby can trail or is it?

And we're less than a month away from the Olympic Games.

A I could make cyber attacks more complicated than ever before.

We're going to be breaking down the biggest threats with an expert that's coming up next.

Right now.

Stocks closed lower in the final trading day of the week.

A mid and quarter.

Meanwhile, the A I frenzy leads stocks to a rip roaring first half of the year.

Yahoo finances, Jared Blick joins us now with more on the trading day takeaways, Jared Josh, this might come as a surprise but mega cap still dominating the returns this year and I'm gonna switch over to some of our heat maps and just show you the year to date results in sectors up.

Number one is communication services.

Uh and then you have tech and education services.

By the way, let's go over to the NASDAQ 100 because that has all of the big components here that has alphabet and also meta.

So you can see meta up 42% out of 30%.

And tech is number two helped, you know NVIDIA up 100 and 50% that helps as well, Microsoft, but these are year to date even if you look at the last month, you still see a lot of green there.

You take a look at the sectors and uh you can see tech communicate, uh it's not communication services, that's XL C com uh discretionary, discretionary and then real estate.

So discretionary has Tesla and Amazon.

Amazon recently reached some new highs there.

So big names, Jared, well known names, the big sectors under the hood.

I mean other, you know some vertical, some subsector, some indices that let's go to our leaders here.

This is over the last month.

Let me put the year to day totals.

Guess what is in the number one spot?

That is crypto G BT C up 53% depending on your exact metric.

You're gonna see some pretty big return in there.

Then we have New York Fang, that's the mega caps then socks.

But you were asking about some of those smaller plays.

I like biotech.

Uh We were looking at that yesterday.

Um Don't like solar right now.

You can see solar especially not in favor after the uh after the debate last night, but also unprofitable tech, you can see arc down there down 16%.

So what's been really interesting is the dichotomy between the semiconductors and the software.

So here's semiconductors.

Let me just show you over the last month.

See a lot.

Well, you see some red there too and then you take a look at software.

Software really came roaring back.

So these two are kind of jockeying for position there.

All right.

Next bullet point.

The Jared takeaway number two.

All right, we are looking at the S and P 500 is kind of doing opposite, doing the opposite of what its individual components are doing.

Swimming against the tide.

Uh is what I'm calling it.

And this is a bespoke chart.

This goes back to a 1990 each of these bars represents a person percentage days of the year uh, in the S and P 500 when it's swimming against the tide of its own components.

That is, uh, if you have more than half of its components, 250 that are going up, S and P 500 going down.

Well, that counts as one.

And in fact, it happened only today with the S and P 500 closed up, but we had more down issues and up issues.

All of this uh is relevant, Josh, because it kind of paints a picture where we might be echoing uh uh an epic from the past.

Well, I'm gonna ask, looks like according to this chart, Jared the last time we did this right around 1995.

So any any parallels, any conclusions I should draw from that, you know, the 19 nineties really interesting time period.

Uh Some people compare the current Epic to the 1990 nine.com bubble, but I've seen a lot of evidence that what we are where we are right now is actually in the mid nineties.

So we haven't even experienced those blow off top euphoria levels.

I showed this chart yesterday.

I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on it, but this basically S and P 500 correlations we are at some low levels and guess what happened in the mid nineties?

We were at those low levels for a very long time.

So the bottom line is the current concentration status quo could last longer than people expect.

All right.

Third and final.

All right.

What is in store for Q three and Q four?

We're gonna go see an alley.

We're going it.

Yes, I have another one.

This is a brand new one.

We've been doing this for a couple of weeks now.

Uh We were focusing on July at that.

That's true.

I am showing you is the entire year.

So I, I looked at all the years going back to 1928 when the S and P 500 is up 10% or more by the end of June, like it is this year, up 15%.

And you can see uh that the rest of the year trails off in July, you still average, you see to fall, but then the things get a little bit dark, they get a little bit dreary in there and then look at November, November, guess what happens in November.

That's an election.

Now, this is just, this doesn't, isn't geared towards election years, the presidential cycle.

But I think it is notable because I was showing this chart only yesterday.

This is vic seasonality.

Guess what happens in mid August through October?

That is prime time, crash season.

So that's when you see the vic shoot up a lot of years.

And so that contributes to what we're seeing right here in this chart.

So all in all, I'm expecting a positive beginning to the beginning to July.

But then as we get farther into the fall, who knows, Jared?

B thank you, my friend.

Be great take aways.

All right.

Moving on 2024 summer Olympic Games in Paris quickly approaching.

According to various estimates, more than 15 million visitors are expected during the event.

With all this attention also comes, of course, the unwanted eye of cyber criminals.

The Olympics have long been a target to cyber attacks.

The Tokyo Games seeing a staggering 450 million cyber threats 2.5 times the number of attacks seen during London Olympic Games.

So what is in store for this year in Paris Arctic Wolf, CEO and President Nick Schneider joins us now to discuss Nick.

Thanks for joining us.

Actually, Nick.

Um Before we get into that, I actually was interested since we have it, you have such a unique insight here.

Um kind of broadly higher level Nick, you know, we see signs that of course, the economy could be cooling against that backdrop.

Nick.

I'm just curious in your industry, what is spending like on security right now?

What, what is demand, Nick?

Is it?

Is it strong?

Yeah, first of all, thanks for having me.

Um I think cybersecurity is an industry uh that, you know, unfortunately, is uh constantly in high demand.

I think the threat actors are becoming more sophisticated.

I think there are new opportunities, you know, particular a I for those threat actors to uh leverage new techniques with organizations.

Uh So the demand environment is, is quite high.

And I think you're seeing that uh through the resiliency of the cybersecurity market, you know, in the public markets itself.

All right, Nick le let's skip ahead now to, to an event that I'm sure is on your industry's radar.

That is the Olympics, as we were mentioning.

Um the games often uh uh the, the receiving end, the target of cyber attacks.

I'm curious, Nick, do you expect that same pattern to hold this year?

Yeah, I think it will um you know, you have an event where there's broad global scale, um millions of people are attending, you know, thousands of vendors are being used, you know, throughout the event over a, you know, relatively short period of time, which just presents an enormous opportunity for supply chain attacks.

Uh And especially, you know, as much as those organizations would, you know, attempt to prepare, they're asked to do a lot in a, in a relatively short amount of time.

And a lot of these organizations are standing up, you know, standing up operations uh in a location or uh in an, in a type of event that they're not used to, uh which just prevents an opportunity for the bad actors.

And I think on top of that, with the global stage, some of the geopolitical tensions will come across, you know, more notably, which is an opportunity again for bad actors.

And then, you know, I suspect we're gonna see uh some increased use of, of A I kind of throughout the games both in the way, in the way in which they're kind of presented, but also the way in which uh they're produced.

Uh And that itself will also present a new opportunity I think for bad actors throughout, you know, this Olympic Games, when you mentioned bad actors, Nick, who are we talking about there?

I mean, are we talking about, you know, is it criminal gangs?

Is it rogue states all the above, all of the above?

Uh And I think especially in an event of this scale of this magnitude and especially since it involves um such a, you know, broad set of organizations or broad set of, you know, countries, um you're gonna see a, a mix of kind of all of the above uh throughout, you know, the event itself.

And when we talk about the the attacks themselves, Nick, what do they look like?

What, what form do they take?

Yeah, they'll, they'll take all of the standard, you know, forms of attack, right?

So I think folks will be attacking again, the supply chains.

I think uh the bad actors will be looking for vulnerabilities.

I do think we'll probably see some nation state activity.

Uh and that will get, you know, into these environments through some of the less sophisticated means, but also through you know, more sophisticated means and, and like I mentioned earlier, I think A I presents a new opportunity for the bad actors and a new vector even of attack uh as an attack surface in itself.

Uh And that all provides on the context of this large global stage, a massive opportunity for the bad actors.

And it just means that those that are participating in the games are a part of the, you know, the game's production need to really remain vigilant and do what is necessary to become, you know, protected as an organization.

You mentioned A I there, Nick, so you would expect perhaps bad actors use A I.

On the other hand, though, would you expect cyber security officials to also integrate, deploy A I defensively?

Yeah, I think we'll see uh uh A I being used in both directions.

So the good news is it can be used, you know, defensively.

Uh the bad news is it can be used uh offensively.

Um And, you know, I think there's a healthy balance there.

II I think right now just the sheer breadth of the ability to use A I in A, in a negative, you know, fashion um probably slightly outweighs the benefits of the, of the proactive, you know, response with regards to A I, but that doesn't discount, you know, all of the blocking and tackling that organizations can do.

Um that is more standard, you know, cybersecurity hygiene uh that could really help them, you know, prevent anything significant Nick ter, uh, terrific discussion and a really interesting, uh, topic.

Thanks so much for taking the time to chat today.

Appreciate it.

Thank you and coming up President Biden assuring voters today that he's up for the job.

After a weak debate, performance raised questions around his age more on whether we're going to see him on the ballot in November.

That is coming up next.

America's biggest banks unveiling capital plans after the results of the stress test earlier this week, Julie Hyman is back here with us with the very latest details.

Julie.

So what basically what we have now are all of the big banks letting us know what their dividends will be and what their stock buyback plans will be.

So, let me give you the headlines first and then explain what's going on here and why we're learning about this right now.

Citigroup.

Let's start.

There is, uh, planning a quarterly dividend of 56 cents a share here.

That is an increase in the company's, uh, dividend here by, uh, a few cents here.

We've got JP Morgan says it's going to boost its quarterly dividend to a buck 25 from a dollar 15.

And Jp Morgan is also planning, um, a new buyback plan of up to $30 billion.

That's its new authorization that replaces its previous authorization.

Wells Fargo said it's going to boost its third quarter stock dividend to 40 cents a share.

It's a gain of about 14% of for that company.

And then you also have B of a Bank of America, which is also raising its dividend as part of this to 26 cents a share from 24 cents a share.

Why are we getting all of these right now?

Well, as you know, because our Jennifer Schomer covered it, uh, every year the banks have to go through this stress testing from the Federal Reserve.

This was something enacted during the financial crisis as you know, that made sure that the banks had adequate capital in the event of an emergency.

So they sort of model the fed models.

It out, everything goes to hell like it did.

Uh during the financial crisis, how would these banks look, would they have enough capital to cover their losses once they pass those stress tests, then the banks can come up with a capital return plan, ie buybacks and dividends, they submit that for approval, they get approved, then they all announce it on the same day.

So that is where we're at, which is why if you're an investor in a big bank, you were watching those stress tests.

Yeah, you were waiting.

What were you gonna get back in terms of um the cash?

So I just mentioned a few of them, but any bank you can think of today is coming out with this information.

Um And so if you're an investor in any of these banks you should check out.

For example, Morgan Stanley its dividend, going to 92.5 cents, buy back of up to $20 billion.

5th 3rd out with its news on this too.

So all, all of the banks coming out with their Julie.

Thank you.

Appreciate it.

The Biden campaign trying to do damage control after the president's disastrous performance on that debate stage last night.

But today President Biden defied calls to leave the race at a rally in North Carolina.

I know I'm not a young man.

See the obvious.

Well, I know I don't walk as easy as I used to.

I don't speak as smoothly as I used to.

I don't deba debate as well as I used to.

But I know what I do know, I know how to tell the truth.

I know how to do this job, you know how to get things done.

I know like millions of Americans know when you get knocked down, you get back up.

I give you my words of Biden.

I would not be running again.

If I didn't believe with all my heart and soul, I can do this job.

Alex Thompson Axios national political correspondent joins us now, Alex, it is good to see you.

So the headline of your report, uh Alex was this Biden's debate is a def con one moment for Democrats.

You, you spoke uh with insiders in the Democratic party.

Alex say, what, what are they telling you?

So there's a few things and apologies for my casual appearance.

I literally just walked into the Atlanta plane.

But, but, but anyways, so there are a few things going on.

One is there's already some internal finger pointing over what just happened about and some of it's directed towards Biden, but all so some of his directed toward the debate prep team, um and feeling that they probably over prepared him, sort of like stuffed his head with a bunch of stats and minutia.

And what would have been better if he had just sort of rested now, that's some of the internal politicking.

But the thing is this is a huge potential crisis for the Biden campaign because going into this debate, the Biden campaign was already behind Trump.

If the election had been held before the, before the debate, almost certainly Trump would have won or was certainly favored to win.

And so this debate was sort of seen as a way of reminding voters, Donald Trump could be president again, but instead of it actually rebounding to the Biden team's benefit.

Uh It actually backfired on them, given that he meandered, was speaking in a, in a hoarse voice, was really just having a hard time even connecting sentences in that debate.

But as you saw in that rally, they, you know, despite some Democrats always anonymously, which is important because if there's, if the, if Democrats want to put their name on something that could maybe change something.

But the fact that Democrats are griping anonymously, the Biden campaign doesn't, doesn't care and they are making clear that they are, they're in it.

You also saw Barack Obama post on social media today.

His support for, for Biden, which was a huge sign to the rest of the Democratic establishment.

So, uh there's a lot of nervous Democrats, you know, I'd say Biden is on sort of probation.

Um But uh you know, you, you're seeing Biden try to, you know, really reconstruct um and, and recover from that bad debate performance, you know, actually noted in your piece, how there was, is really the feeling was there's just one person who could end Biden's campaign and that is Biden himself.

I wonder though, what do you make of sort of um Joe Biden's role here, you know, and her possible impact and influence because she is very active, Alex and of course, very involved you see here there.

How are you thinking about that relation and, and her possible impact on whether it continues the campaign continues.

You're seeing her role become more and more prominent.

I mean, Joe Biden wouldn't have run in 2020 without Joe Biden's support.

He wouldn't have run this time without Jill Biden being very enthusiastic about it.

And I don't think it's a surprise that at the rally after the debate last night, Jill Biden went on stage and raised him and sort of did this, you know, little bit rally of, you know, Trump lies.

And then she also introduced him at a North Carolina rally and, you know, it was just as sort of rousing as him.

You can see, you know, despite the fact that in her past, she's been a little bit more, you know, she's always been in her past, she was uncomfortable being a political spouse, but in this version of Jill Biden, she is, she's, she's more, I guess, like, uh, you know, 19 nineties, Hillary Clinton than 19 nineties, Joe Biden.

I mean, she's very, very involved and as long as she still wants to run, I, I imagine Joe Biden wants to run too.

Alex, let's push it forward here.

You know, we're waiting to hear whether, you know, big donors, the big names who write the big checks.

Do they publicly voice their concerns?

Do congressional Democrats, you know, make their worries public.

What do you expect?

It's gonna be really fascinating this weekend because Joe Biden does have a few fundraisers including in the Hamptons tomorrow night.

And, you know, it just within sort of like donor cliche world.

The Hamptons are sort of notoriously known as being difficult donors quote unquote and that they, they ask very hard questions.

They're usually very, very skeptical and they all watch that debate.

I guarantee you.

And I'm really curious to see, you know, if, if they feel they see him tomorrow night and aren't impressed.

Uh, that's the sort of crowd that will talk and they'll talk to reporters and then if they talk to reporters, you could see, you know, rush out.

But at the moment it's basically just, we're not sure we don't feel very comfortable, but we're, we're, we're just sort of waiting and seeing for now.

All right, Alex, those folks talk to you, let us know.

We'll have to have you right back on the show.

Thanks for joining us, Alex.

Appreciate it.

Thanks.

And before we go to break, here's a preview of our new podcast financial freestyle sitting here right now.

2024 still, 40% of all Americans run out of money in retirement, right?

53% of African American households run out of money in retirement.

So we are looking at a system, if that system is broken, everything breaks down.

So if your parents, you know, can't run out of money in retirement, then you have to start funding them because they don't have money.

So that's taking money out of, out of what should be your, uh you know, your nest egg, which you should be passing on to your kids.

So it's just a generational deficit if we can't retire the right way.

Financial freestyle with Ross Mack debuts on Monday, July 1st at 12 p.m. Eastern.

We're asking for a trend on the other side.

Tractor supply become one of the first companies to publicly say it's eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion roles and goals and it's part of a broader trend.

Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman joins me now with a closer look, Julie.

Indeed, Josh.

So let's talk first, Baba what tractor supply is doing.

And it is saying it's doing this in response to feedback basically from customers.

Um, they say we've heard from customers that we have disappointed them.

Um So what is the company doing?

It's no longer going to be submitting data to the human rights campaign.

Um And to LGBT Groups and speaking of LGBT, the company is not going to be sponsoring what it calls non business activities, like pride, festivals and voting campaigns any longer.

Uh The company is also withdrawing its carbon emission goals and focusing on land and water conservation efforts.

And finally, the company is getting rid of the roles and also retiring their current D I goals while somehow still ensuring a respectful environment in their words.

So again, this is in response to what they've heard, but to your point, this is not happening in isolation.

We have had a backlash against the companies who have had explicit goals and de I roles at their company, something that had seen an uptick during the uh pandemic and in the wake of and surrounding the events around Black Lives Matter and that movement.

Uh So one way of measuring this is how many De I Ross are there?

Uh This data coming to us from a Rio labs and the chief economist there, Lisa Simon, sharing this updated data with me.

Basically, the DE I rolls are down now, almost 10%.

They peaked in uh 2023 here.

Uh As we talked about what was sort of going on around.

Well, this isn't working.

But anyway, you see the big run up that we had seen in these DE I roles as measured by reve and then here that decline that we have seen as there has been that backlash.

Here, there are a lot, a lot of companies who have sort of more quietly backed away from these goals and these roles, tractor supply.

As you mentioned, Josh, one of the companies that has come out with a more public facing statement on these matters, but we'll continue to track this and see if we see a continuation of the decrease in these types of roles.

All right, Julie, thank you so much.

And that is a wrap on today's ask you for a trend.

Have a great weekend.