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How some of the Big Tech stocks usually perform after reporting earnings

Yahoo Finance markets reporter Jared Blikre breaks down how Big Tech stocks are trading in advance of earnings.

Video transcript


SEANA SMITH: All right, well, as earnings season heats up this week, a slew of high profile companies have a proven track record of performing better than others. Jared Blikre is here with a closer look. And Jared, who's expected to top expectations this time around?

JARED BLIKRE: Well, not surprisingly, Apple is looking the best on my list here. But I just want to go over the performance of some of these mega caps. Now, this is a-- the NASDAQ 100 year-to-date. So some high fliers here, especially in terms of the big names.

We've got Amazon up 20%. We got a Meta up 23%. Tesla up almost 40%. Nvidia up 32%. And this comes after a terrible year. Let's not forget that Meta had two quarters last year where they missed something by like 20-- well, the price reaction was something like 20% down the next day.

So what I've done is I've looked at three stocks that are reporting this week. We got Apple, Meta, and Amazon. And Apple, you can see, usually beats it's number 91% of the time. Now, you'd think that'd be great and everything. But the one-day price percent change, that is going to 52% so barely better than half. And this goes back 10 years. And the results are-- for all three of these, the results are all three skewed a little bit to the downside by what's happened over the last year.

Now, sticking with Apple, the median EPS price is 4.1%. So that's in terms of the earnings per share amount beat. And then the median one-day price change, 2.1%. That is only the-- for Apple, I got to say, that is actually pretty low. Throughout history, it has been higher at times.

And then you do the same analysis for Meta and Amazon. Now Meta, EPS beat 86%, notwithstanding what I was talking about those misses over the last year. One-day percent prince change, 52%. These numbers really don't square going down the mark. So I think what I want to say here is day traders, great, if you have this-- if you have the opportunity to get involved in one of these trades after the bell, before the bell the next day into the close, great. But this doesn't necessarily have predictive power about the stock. And that just has to do with the environment that we're in.

One of the stats that I like to look at is options implied one-day price change. And that's done-- that's signaled by the options market. So, for instance, for Apple, we're looking at an options market that is pricing in a 4% price change after the fact. And what happens, historically, usually only about half of that, 2.1%. Meta, we're looking at an 8% change. Amazon, we're looking at a 9% change.

So my other conclusion is this is probably going to be a volatile week. And we're probably gonna see some bigger reactions even in these big names than we would ordinarily.

DAVE BRIGGS: All right, Jared, good stuff. Thank you, my friend.