• Christmas Comes Early for Markets as Key Risks Get Taken Out

    Christmas Comes Early for Markets as Key Risks Get Taken Out

    (Bloomberg) -- It started last Friday, with a blowout U.S. jobs report that beat all expectations. Then in quick succession late Thursday investors got news that the guns will be holstered in the U.S.-China trade war, and that Britain is lifting itself out of the quagmire of a hung parliament.Suddenly, all the worries about a global recession, yet another wave of tariff hikes between the world’s two largest economies and a messy U.K. breakup with the European Union are fading from view. It may be Friday the 13th, but those who made an early start on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s call for risk-on trades in 2020 can count themselves lucky.The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite logged record closes Thursday, helping push MSCI’s all-country world gauge to its first all-time high since the eve of the global rout in January 2018, back when a stocks “melt-up” was the narrative of the day. In currencies, the yen fell and the yuan soared. Bond yields climbed, with 10-year Treasuries north of 1.9% and their Japanese counterparts in recent days straddling 0% for the first time since March.The moves came on news that President Donald Trump signed off on a phase-one deal with China that averts the Dec. 15 introduction of another wave of U.S. tariffs. Confirmation from Trump himself is still pending, though, and U.S. futures saw only modest gains in the Asian morning Friday. In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson is cruising for a majority, exit polls showed, an election result that should guarantee passage of his Brexit deal with the EU.“We’ve got a runway now for a smooth way into year-end,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “You’re looking at a situation where investors are going to have to chase the market into year-end.”In a stark contrast to last year, the Federal Reserve has been a major ally for those bullish on risk this year-end. The U.S. central bank started injecting liquidity in October at a pace of $60 billion of T-bill purchases a month, and Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday if needed the initiative could adjust to buying coupon-paying securities as well.Bets on the Fed have shifted as risks eased over the past week. Futures trading suggests just a 69% chance of an interest-rate cut in 2020. Thursday last week, one cut was fully priced in, with a 13% chance of another one by the end of next year.The ground is shifting for others, too. As recently as a month back, the Bank of Japan was seen by some as needing to head deeper into negative territory with its policy rate. But now, with the yen weakening past 109 per dollar and Japan’s government embracing a fiscal-stimulus package, things look different.“We’re perhaps seeing the start of a strong yen decline -- Trump’s tweet, the Brexit results have flipped the yen on its head,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics & strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “We could see haven demand wane into 2020. There might be even a last hurrah before the year-end as risk bulls get their way, and push the yen lower from here.”Bringing hope to both Japanese institutional investors and those the world over is the reduction in the pool of negative-yielding bonds. It had shrunk to $11.5 trillion as of Thursday, down from the record $17 trillion hit in August when the trade war was raging.How long the Christmastime cheer will last remains a question. On three of the key risks, doubts remain. Brave is the analyst that predicts smooth sailing in the U.S.-China relationship ahead; no American presidential candidate is running on the “be nice to China” ticket. Johnson’s looming majority may guarantee the U.K. leaves the EU in January, but the two will still need to negotiate a trade deal, meaning the “hard Brexit” scenario could yet be on the horizon.As for global recession risks, while the consensus is that growth will pick up in 2020 thanks to this year’s monetary easing and moves in a number of countries to embrace fiscal stimulus, that view isn’t universal. In Australia, an economy closely tied to demand for important inputs including coal and iron, some even see the central bank adopting quantitative easing next year.And some warn that the U.S. presidential-election season, set to kick into high gear next month in the leadup to the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses, could pose dangers. The populist platform from onetime front-runner Senator Elizabeth Warren has triggered warnings about the record-setting U.S. bull market for equities coming to an end.But for the moment, things are looking up. Investors have shrugged off the Trump impeachment story, confident that the Republican majority in the Senate means he’ll remain in office. The Republicans and Democrats have even been able to craft a bipartisan deal to fund the government before the Dec. 20 spending deadline.For emerging markets, a newly solid Chinese yuan and a retreat in the dollar to the weakest since July offers encouragement. A weakening yuan that dragged developing nations’ currencies down with it had made dollar debt more expensive to service. The yuan Friday traded past the 7-per-dollar line that had briefly spooked markets earlier this year.“It feels like all the bricks in the wall of worry are falling at once,” said Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts.\--With assistance from Garfield Reynolds, Cormac Mullen, Gregor Stuart Hunter, Tracy Alloway and Ruth Carson.To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Anstey in Tokyo at canstey@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Joanna OssingerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Your Evening Briefing

    Your Evening Briefing

    (Bloomberg) -- Want to receive this post in your inbox every afternoon? Sign up here President Donald Trump tweeted five minutes after markets opened in New York that the U.S. and China were very close to a trade deal, which predictably sent stocks skyward as Wall Streeters bet Dec. 15 tariffs on $160 billion in consumer goods would be tabled. They were right: Trump later signed off on a so-called phase-one accord. It’s down to the wire with Brexit: To keep up with the latest news now that the U.K. election is over, sign up for our daily newsletter, follow us on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast.Here are today’s top storiesA key exit poll after Thursday’s U.K. election projected that Boris Johnson will likely retain the office of prime minister, allowing him to continue his effort to remove the country from the European Union.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the euro zone’s economic slowdown is showing signs of bottoming out, suggesting further interest-rate cuts are unlikely any time soon.Justin Trudeau’s main rival is stepping down as Conservative Party leader after failing to unseat the Canadian prime minister in October.Senator Bernie Sanders is rising in the polls once again as Democratic voters warm to his consistency on policy, especially Medicare for All, while rivals seek to modulate their positions. He’s either tied for the lead or in second place in early presidential nominating states.Lev Parnas, an associate of Trump personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani, got $1 million from an account in Russia a month before he was charged with conspiring to funnel foreign money into U.S. campaigns, prosecutors said as they asked a judge to jail him.Another party drug is showing signs of going legit as magic mushrooms cleared the first hurdle to become a treatment for depression.What’s Joe Wesienthal thinking? The Bloomberg news director opines that the most interesting thing that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his press conference Wednesday was in response to the question of what it would take for him to characterize the labor market as “hot.” Powell said it all came down to wages, and that he wasn’t comfortable calling it hot because employers still aren’t paying workers more despite low unemployment. Powell’s answer made Joe think of former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who recently told Bloomberg that one reason the Fed tightened rates in 2018 was an obsession with “normalizing” policy.What you’ll need to know tomorrowThe Judiciary Committee is likely to approve impeachment tonight. Forget blackjack; Macau is about to become a financial hub. For 2020, JPMorgan says buy stocks and short gold. Here are the Best Books of 2019 according to business bigwigs. Russia’s only aircraft carrier caught fire while in port. A former Credit Suisse executive said the bank had her followed. Pepsi is rolling out a coffee-cola drink with twice as much caffeine.What you’ll want to read in Bloomberg PursuitsEvery week in Bloomberg Businessweek, editors test a wide range of products, whether the latest gadgets or high-performance sports equipment. Those luxury products that measure up the best eventually go into a page called “The One,” and so in time for the holidays, we’ve collected a few of our favorites from 2019. (Corrects introduction to say Trump signed off on a proposed partial trade deal.)To contact the author of this story: David Rovella in New York at drovella@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Peloton Shorts Make Up 70% of Float and They Aren’t Going Away

    Peloton Shorts Make Up 70% of Float and They Aren’t Going Away

    (Bloomberg) -- Peloton Interactive Inc. should start getting used to short sellers.Short interest accounts for 70% of the available shares and is expected to remain high until the IPO lockup expiry on March 24, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners. Bearish positions have been steadily increasing since late November. Almost 29 million shares are held by short sellers, and borrow fees are starting to hit as high as 50% for new supply, according to Matthew Unterman, a director at S3.Higher borrow fees are “indicative of increased demand to short and decreasing availability in lending pools,” he said.Shares of Peloton have fallen 16% from their Dec. 2 high in the wake of backlash from a controversial TV ad. Earlier this week, short-seller Citron Research predicted the stock would fall to $5 per share next year due to increasing competition and stale hardware. On Thursday, Hedgeye warned that the stock could fall by half.Sell-side analysts tracked by Bloomberg are nearly unanimously bullish on the stock, with 20 buy recommendations, 1 hold, and no sells.\--With assistance from Joshua Fineman.To contact the reporter on this story: Janet Freund in New York at jfreund11@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at clarkin4@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • 3 Hot Value Stocks Beating the S&P 500 in 2019

    3 Hot Value Stocks Beating the S&P 500 in 2019

    Even value stocks had a good year in 2019. But could you buy the ETFs and walk away or did you need to be a stock picker?

  • Zacks Market Edge Highlights: Shopify, Generac, Ubiquiti, Aptar and Omega

    Zacks Market Edge Highlights: Shopify, Generac, Ubiquiti, Aptar and Omega

    Zacks Market Edge Highlights: Shopify, Generac, Ubiquiti, Aptar and Omega

  • AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues To Reach Towards 200 Day EMA
    FX Empire

    AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues To Reach Towards 200 Day EMA

    The Australian dollar rallied a bit again during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see bullish pressure. It perhaps was helped by poor US figures, but at the end of the day this looks like a market that is trying to form a longer-term bottom.

  • JPMorgan Stock Rises 3%

    JPMorgan Stock Rises 3%

    Investing.com - JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Stock rose by 3.05% to trade at $138.24 by 15:08 (20:08 GMT) on Thursday on the NYSE exchange.

  • Warren’s Relish for Combat Over Compromise Faces Sternest Test

    Warren’s Relish for Combat Over Compromise Faces Sternest Test

    (Bloomberg) -- Bashing Wall Street propelled Elizabeth Warren to the Senate, where she has continued to battle bankers, administration officials, Republicans and at times, fellow Democrats.Yet while her zeal for combat over compromise has made Warren a hero to progressives and raised her profile as a 2020 presidential contender, it hasn’t yielded substantial legislative wins -- suggesting it could be difficult for her as president to deliver on her big proposals that need bipartisan support.Since she was first sworn in as a senator from Massachusetts in 2013, she has had a significant impact on shaping policy toward Wall Street; for example, setting a test for regulatory agency nominees that they must back a requirement for companies to disclose political donations. Yet that often meant blocking legislation and taking on members of her party, including President Barack Obama, over appointments she said weren’t ideologically sound.And she frequently lost, something that never really mattered according to people who know her.“Warren came to Washington to be an outside voice critiquing Washington and Wall Street. That is how she viewed her position in the Senate,” said Isaac Boltansky, who worked for Warren before she was elected and is now a financial policy analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading. “There were bills that she introduced that she never intended to become law, they were meant to challenge the presumption of the status quo.”Warren is seeking the Democratic nomination for the presidency promising to enact “big structural change”: Government-run health care, free college tuition, universal child care, the Green New Deal and more, all paid for with steep new taxes on the wealthy and corporations. Congress would have to pass all of it. And Warren would have to earn the support of skeptical Democrats, let alone Republicans who will likely still control the Senate.Warren says that a White House victory would be statement enough to Congress that America wants to see her policies enacted. She’s also vowed to end Congress’s use of the filibuster rules that require three-fifths of the Senate to support the end of debate.“When I win, I will turn around to all my Democratic colleagues and say this is what I ran on,” she told reporters in Iowa in November. “It’s there and that’s what the majority of the people in the United States of America said they wanted.”In a speech delivered in New Hampshire Thursday, Warren said she has no illusions of bipartisan unity."Unlike some candidates for the Democratic nomination, I’m not counting on Republican politicians having an epiphany and suddenly supporting the kinds of tax increases on the rich or big business accountability they have opposed under Democratic presidents for a generation," she said."I’m not betting my agenda on the naïve hope that if Democrats adopt Republican critiques of progressive policies or make vague calls for unity that somehow the wealth and well-connected will stand down," she added, pledging to build a "grass-roots movement" to produce a new economy.Before she came to Congress, she chalked up some significant wins at a time when people in the financial industry said she was far less confrontational.As an expert appointed to a congressional panel set up in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, she played a key role in crafting the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, and she is credited with creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, an agency established by the new law to protect people from predatory lending and other abuses.But while she wanted to run the agency, Obama didn’t nominate her.Warren had a reputation as an academic who was willing to work with those who disagreed with her. Observers say that changed once she entered politics.“She turned a different color when she was elected to the Senate,” said Richard Hunt, president of the Consumer Bankers Association, whose members include the biggest American banks. “Before, she would meet with us regularly. I believe we had an admiration and respect for each other even though we disagreed. Not anymore. She is dug in and not changing her mind.”Campaign spokeswoman Saloni Sharma pointed to her success in fomenting such public anger at two Wells Fargo & Co executives that they were fired. She said a bill Warren sponsored with Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa to make it easier to buy over-the-counter hearing aids was an example of a significant bipartisan legislation. Sharma said Warren also changed the conversation on Social Security and the student loan crisis.‘Wall Street Is Scared’“Billionaires are upset and Wall Street is scared of her because they know she will be effective at making them pay their fair share and at holding them accountable,” Sharma said.But Warren’s effectiveness would depend on compromise.“Senator Warren’s high-profile plans will not move forward absent significant compromise,” said Jason Grumet, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center. “The senator has demonstrated the capacity to engage in the kind of legislative process on a lot of issues that are below the fold, but has not yet demonstrated the ability to create the kind of coalition necessary to pass significant structural changes like many of the ideas driving her campaign.“Whether she can or not is uncertain,” he added. “The absolutism in Senator Warren’s campaign will not be effective in a divided Congress.”“There’s a big difference between a hearing-aid bill and Medicare for All,” said Elaine Kamarck, senior fellow at the non-partisan Brookings Institution. “Members of Congress are not going to get on board easily.”The Senate Banking Committee proved to be an ideal perch for her fights.Her confrontations with people like Wells Fargo’s John Stumpf over the bank’s opening of millions of bogus customer accounts became instant sensations. Stumpf was later ousted. His successor, Tim Sloan, who also went head-to-head with Warren, eventually stepped down as well.Warren would follow her attacks from the dais with letters to the companies and their regulators, calling for additional changes and the executives’ heads. She pressed the Federal Reserve to replace Wells Fargo’s board members, she called for multiple agencies to strengthen their rules and repeatedly called on the company to answer more questions about the scandal.Wins and LossesShe also stymied bipartisan attempts to change the structure of the CFPB, according to congressional staffers and lobbyists. And she had sway with financial regulators on matters about implementing the 2010 law.But she lost a string of fights when she started to block fellow Democrats from making any changes to Dodd-Frank, which created sweeping regulations aimed at preventing another financial crisis.In late 2014, Democrats who controlled the Senate wanted to ease Dodd-Frank rules over trading derivatives for big banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. Warren opposed the change. The provision was part of a year-end spending bill and her stance at one point threatened to shut down the government.“Mr. President, I’m back on the floor to talk about a dangerous provision that was slipped into a must-pass spending bill at the last minute to benefit Wall Street,” she said on the Senate floor.Congress passed the spending bill with the provision Warren opposed.She opposed efforts by a bipartisan group of lawmakers who wanted to relieve small and regional banks from Dodd-Frank’s strictest rules in 2018. On the Senate floor, she railed against more than a dozen moderate Democrats, including several facing tough re-elections in Republican-leaning states. She called them out personally in emails, and nicknamed the bill “The Bank Lobbyist Act.”Riling DemocratsSome Democrats argued Warren was wrong about whom the bill targeted.In an unusual intraparty public dispute, Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota argued that “a lot of the things that have been said about this bill have been reckless. This is not a giveaway to Wall Street.”The legislation passed and was signed into law by President Trump in May 2018.Warren also opposed Democratic nominees for financial regulation jobs, often clashing with the Obama administration. It was a big part of her strategy that “personnel is policy.”In 2014, she lashed out against Antonio Weiss, Obama’s pick for Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance. She argued Weiss’ work at Lazard Ltd, a financial advisory firm, made him too cozy with Wall Street to police the industry effectively. Tapping into her base of progressive grassroots supporters, she created so much noise that Weiss asked Obama to remove him from consideration.An End RunBut the Obama administration found a way around her. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew tapped Weiss to be a special adviser at Treasury, a job that didn’t require Senate confirmation.“Weiss was able to do much of what he would have done as undersecretary,” said Capital Alpha financial regulation analyst Ian Katz. “In terms of policy making, it didn’t make a big difference.”In 2016, Warren took on Mary Jo White, Obama’s choice to run the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, for refusing to require companies to disclose their political contributions in financial statements that are scrutinized by investors.White refused, saying she didn’t have the legal authority to do so. Warren publicly scolded her in hearings, and followed with equally scathing letters telling her that “your leadership of the commission has been extremely disappointing.” Escalating the clash, Warren demanded that Obama demote White.“The only way to return the SEC to its intended purpose is to change its leadership,” she wrote the White House in October 2016.Obama didn’t remove White, and the SEC has yet to take up the issue of corporate political spending disclosures.Yet it had an impact. The issue of corporate political disclosures has become a test for any Democrat seeking a Senate-confirmed job at the SEC. Lisa Fairfax, a securities lawyer chosen for an SEC commission vacancy in 2016, never got a vote after she stumbled answering questions on the topic.Warren also had significant sway in shaping financial regulation outside the legislative process, and regulators adopted many issues she raised. As president, she could continue to shape policy with appointments. But that would fall far short of adopting the “big, structural change” she promises in the campaign.Warren uses her political skills to bolster Democrats who agree with her and has openly criticized Democratic candidates who disagreed with her. She has used her presidential campaign resources to help fellow Democrats, hiring organizers in states that hold key gubernatorial and state legislature races.Many voters say they’re looking for a candidate who will begin to unify the Democratic Party. As her poll numbers have slipped, Warren has begun to signal a willingness to compromise, at least for the time being.“Look, I will sign anything that helps and I’ll keep fighting for more ways to help because I think that’s the right way to do it,” Warren said.(Michael Bloomberg is also seeking the Democratic presidential nomination. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.)(Updates with new ninth, tenth, eleventh paragraph with fresh Warren quote.)To contact the reporters on this story: Misyrlena Egkolfopoulou in Washington at megkolfopoul@bloomberg.net;Elizabeth Dexheimer in Washington at edexheimer@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Jesse WestbrookFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • MoneyGram Extends Tie-Up With CVS for Seamless Transactions

    MoneyGram Extends Tie-Up With CVS for Seamless Transactions

    MoneyGram (MGI) expands its relationship with retail pharmacy chain CVS to facilitate fast and smooth money transfer options to customers.

  • Fed Likely to Pause Rates in 2020: Bank Stocks Worth Buying?

    Fed Likely to Pause Rates in 2020: Bank Stocks Worth Buying?

    The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting and forecasts reflect no change of rate throughout 2020.

  • Banks to End 2019 With Upbeat Trading and IB Performance

    Banks to End 2019 With Upbeat Trading and IB Performance

    Strong trading and investment banking performance will support banks' fee income growth in Q4.

  • Financial Times

    US stocks notch record after Trump tweets about trade deal

    investor hopes a “BIG DEAL” on trade between the US and China was close. Although investors’ hopes for a trade deal have been dashed numerous times this year, Mr Trump’s latest tweet arrived days before a December 15 deadline that could see a new round of tariffs imposed upon Chinese imports.

  • Financial Times

    Saudi Aramco touches $2tn valuation on second day of trading

    Saudi Aramco’s shares rose 10 per cent during its second day of trading on Thursday, pushing the state oil group’s valuation above $2tn. Shares climbed by the maximum daily limit to SR38.7 before profit-taking pushed the price down, according to the website of Riyadh’s Tadawul stock exchange. for the company has long been sought by Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Riyadh has worked to backstop the flotation to ensure its success.

  • Investing.com

    Stocks - Apple, Lululemon Fall Premarket; Delta, GE Rise

    Investing.com -- Stocks in focus in premarket trade on Thursday, 12th December.

  • AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over .6893, Weakens Under .6876
    FX Empire

    AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over .6893, Weakens Under .6876

    Based on the early price action and the current price at .6884, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6876 and the downtrending Gann angle at .6893.

  • GBP/USD – Pound Gaining Ground as Boris Holds Lead in Polls
    FX Empire

    GBP/USD – Pound Gaining Ground as Boris Holds Lead in Polls

    It’s Election Day across the U.K, and millions of voters will determine what happens next with the Brexit saga, which has lasted three years. If Prime Minister Johnson can win an outright majority, the British pound could respond with significant gains.

  • Holiday Season Dovish Delight
    FX Empire

    Holiday Season Dovish Delight

    US equities strengthened US 10-year treasury yields slipped lower, however, down 5bps to 1.79%, providing a fillip to gold prices. But until we ultimately clear the Brexit and US-China risk, the market could struggle to trade directionally.

  • China’s Unfazed Yuan Traders Bet Tariffs Won’t Be Hiked

    China’s Unfazed Yuan Traders Bet Tariffs Won’t Be Hiked

    (Bloomberg) -- China yuan traders are undaunted by Sunday’s looming start of fresh U.S. tariffs even as investors elsewhere are piling into protection.As President Donald Trump’s Dec. 15 deadline for more duties on Chinese imports draws closer, one-week risk reversals -- a measure of demand for bearish yuan bets relative to bullish calls in the options market -- have been at their lowest since July. And while volatility gauges for the currency have jumped in the past week, they remain well below levels reached in August, when the yuan weakened through 7 per dollar for the first time since 2008 amid trade worries.An unusual sense of tranquility has descended on China’s financial markets the past month, in part on investors awaiting clearer insight on the state of the U.S.-China trade fight amid a near-daily dose of headlines.While the offshore yuan weakened slightly Wednesday after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said he has “no indication” whether the looming tariffs will be implemented as scheduled, market sentiment was supported by people familiar with the discussions saying that Chinese officials expect the duties to be delayed.Yuan traders anticipate the same, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “Volatility spikes have been nothing out of the ordinary and the spot market is still calm,” he added. “I guess all the headlines about how both sides are really close to a deal have given them some comfort.”Some Chinese banks have chosen to reduce their long and short dollar positions ahead of the tariff deadline, according to three traders. Most firms have reached their year-end performance targets, so there’s no need to take fresh risk at this time, the traders added, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak with the media.Amid the trade uncertainty in recent days, one-week volatility in both the onshore and offshore yuan is back to October levels. But “volatility is rising from a very low place,” said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader Ltd. “It’s cheap relative to the risks that lie ahead.”Read: JPMorgan’s Dimon Says He Expects U.S.-China Phase-One Trade DealThe yuan has traded in a roughly 1% range the past month, sticking close to the 7 per dollar level. Citigroup Inc. told its clients last week that while it doubted new tariffs will be enacted Dec. 15, the yuan could weaken to 7.2 to 7.35 per dollar in offshore trading if the levies get priced into the market.The currency was around 7.0320 at 3:45 p.m. in Shanghai, the yuan weakening slightly after a Ministry of Commerce spokesman provided no trade-talk update during a regular afternoon briefing beyond saying teams remain in close touch.Meanwhile, the volatility spread between the onshore and offshore yuan has widened to the most since October. That’s largely on dwindling mainland trading momentum ahead of year-end, said Frank Zhang, deputy general manager for global markets at Bank of Hangzhou Co.(Updates yuan level, adds government spokesman in ninth paragraph)\--With assistance from Ran Li.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Livia Yap in Shanghai at lyap14@bloomberg.net;Qizi Sun in Beijing at qsun62@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Sofia Horta e Costa at shortaecosta@bloomberg.net, Kevin Kingsbury, Fran WangFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bloomberg

    Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

    (Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on what's moving European markets in your inbox every morning? Sign up here.Good morning. The Fed is on hold, Lagarde speaks, European politics is having a busy end to the year and it’s U.K. election day. Here’s what’s moving markets.No ChangeThe U.S. Federal Reserve left its monetary policy stance unchanged and Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy and Fed policy are in a “good place.” The message is clear: The Fed doesn't plan to make any significant changes to its stance unless there is a big shift in the health of the economy. Powell also focused closely on his belief that the labor market can improve more, despite unemployment standing at a 50-year low, marking himself out as a “job crusader.” Stocks edged up and Treasury yields dipped after the announcement, while Asian stocks were mixed in Thursday’s session and European stock futures are pointing to a slightly positive open.Enter LagardeThe European Central Bank’s first policy meeting under its new president, Christine Lagarde, and particularly the press conference that follows, will be scoured forensically for any hints on her policy priorities and what she may deploy should an already-rocky economy take a turn for the worse. That’s not the only central bank game in town on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank, nearing a half-decade of sub-zero rates, is expected to keep all unchanged as the debate over it keeping rates negative continues. And Turkey’s central bank will announce its latest decision against the backdrop of a lira out of sync with other emerging-market currencies.Trade BetsThe week rumbles on with investors hoping that their initial optimism about a delay to the tariffs the U.S. plans to put on Chinese goods on Sunday will prove well-founded. Yuan traders are betting just that. JPMorgan Chase & Co. boss Jamie Dimon thinks a phase one deal will be reached eventually, but warned about the impact those new tariffs would have if levied. The Europe-U.S. trade picture seems a little more ominous, with Europe moving to seek an upgrade to existing legislation that would allow it to target nations that are undermining global rules, a decision clearly aimed at the U.S.Talks, Protests and ElectionsA little political roundup to keep up to date. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with the new leaders of her coalition partners after they demanded a series of concessions to keep the pact alive. France is set to face intensified protests over pension reforms that President Emmanuel Macron has pushed ahead with, in spite of the opposition. In Spain, acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been invited by the king to form a government. And Israel faces a third election in less than a year after neither of its major parties managed to form a government.Coming Up…The U.K. votes today. Here’s a guide to how the results will come in. Eyes will also remain trained on Riyadh and Saudi Aramco flirting with a $2 trillion valuation. Elsewhere, euro-area industrial production data and inflation numbers from Germany and France are on the slate, though the ECB decision will supersede all of that. A hot European stock in the shape of grocery delivery firm Ocado Group Plc gives a trading statement, and the updates from U.K. outsourcer Serco Group Plc and electronics retailer Dixons Carphone Plc are likely to attract attention too.What We’ve Been ReadingThis is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. Silicon Valley is always listening. JPMorgan advises shorting gold, buying stocks in 2020. You can now adopt a piece of Venice. Netflix is making a TV series about Spotify. Carlos Ghosn prepares for trial. CBD-infused tea is coming to Canada, from a beer giant. Bankrupt American brands thriving in Japan.Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.To contact the author of this story: Sam Unsted in London at sunsted@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Phil Serafino at pserafino@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Australian Associated Press

    Aussie dollar jumps after US Fed outlook

    Some speculators betting on a drop in the value of the Australian dollar have been caught out by the speed and scale of the currency's rally on Thursday.

  • The UK General Election and the ECB Put the GBP and EUR in Focus
    FX Empire

    The UK General Election and the ECB Put the GBP and EUR in Focus

    It’s finally election day in the UK. Can Johnson win a majority and deliver on Brexit or is there more pain to come. There’s also the ECB.

  • Centene (CNC) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know

    Centene (CNC) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know

    In the latest trading session, Centene (CNC) closed at $58.64, marking a -1.64% move from the previous day.

  • Wall Street Watchdog Joins Banks in Fretting About Zombie Libor

    Wall Street Watchdog Joins Banks in Fretting About Zombie Libor

    (Bloomberg) -- “Zombie Libor” and “Libor apocalypse” are probably phrases that send chills down the spines of Wall Street traders. It turns out the terms are also triggering anxiety among swaps regulators.U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Heath Tarbert said Wednesday that his agency is tracking the threat of the London Interbank Offered Rate not entirely going away when banks are no longer required to provide submissions used to calculate it. That could lead to a situation in which the benchmark still exists, but isn’t a legitimate borrowing rate.“To avoid a potential zombie Libor apocalypse, various proposals are currently being discussed,” Tarbert said in a speech. “We are monitoring these discussions and look forward to responding to any proposals in due course.”Libor is used to set rates on hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of financial products. If every bank stops submitting data at the end of 2021, it will probably die. But many on Wall Street are concerned that the panel of contributors won’t shrink all the way to zero, leaving the index alive but a bad representation of lending rates. That, and the harm it might do to derivatives markets, is what Tarbert is trying to avoid.To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jesse Westbrook at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net, Gregory Mott, Nick BakerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • What the Tech?

    What the Tech?

    Let's REALLY dive deep into the abyss which can be tech. Associate Stock Strategist Dan Laboe, Zacks' resident Tech geek joins us.

  • Andrew Left Sees Peloton Shares Dropping to $5 in 2020

    Andrew Left Sees Peloton Shares Dropping to $5 in 2020

    Dec.11 -- Peloton shares declined as much a 7.6% after Citron Research said it sees the stock falling to $5 per share in 2020. Citron Research Founder Andrew Left appears on "Bloomberg Technology."