On any list of biotech plays that might multiply in value in a relatively short period, Cassava Sciences (NASDAQ: SAVA) is likely to be near the top of the list. It's exploring whether its drug called simufilam is safe and effective to treat early-stage Alzheimer's disease, though its clinical trials have (so far) shed little light on the issue. The biggest reason to sell Cassava stock: After an open-label phase 2 clinical trial of simufilam, the market reacted quite negatively to the release of new data that management spun as being positive.
Figure 1 Statistical model of historical 1-year declines on ADAS-Cog, placebo vs simufilam treatment, mild-to-moderate disease.¹ Figure 2 Statistical model of historical 1-year declines on ADAS-Cog, placebo vs simufilam treatment, in early disease and mild disease.² ADAS-Cog mean scores changed minimally over 1 year in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease treated with open-label simufilam tablets.47% of patients improved on ADAS-Cog over 1 year, and this group improved by 4.7 point
Here is how Mesa Labs (MLAB) and Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.