|Day's range||1,314.30 - 1,325.80|
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of a closing price reversal top on Thursday and its confirmation earlier today.
With the poor economic numbers from the US, the market is likely to favour a move to the upside and try moving towards the top of the consolidation phase to the 1.15 handle. The pair is now testing support at the 50% Fibonacci scale, and next major support is at the 1.27 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The market is likely to remain choppy and with poor economic numbers from the US, AUD is likely to gain a bit of momentum.
A series of U.S. reports could move gold prices on Friday. Weak numbers will increase the odds of a pause in Fed rate hikes. This would likely put pressure on the dollar while make dollar-denominated gold a more attractive investment.
Gold markets fell initially during the trading session on Thursday but has turned around to break back above the 20 day EMA, showing signs of resiliency yet again.
The day will be highlighted by the important releases for the United States. The level of retail sales core retail sales and PPI are expected to be published at 15:30 MT time. According to analysts, headline retail sales and PPI will advance by 0.1%. At the same time, the level of core retail sales will likely stay at the same level.
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Gold is regarded as immune to changes in economic activity and hence steady fund flow from investors who wish to avoid loss of funds owing to geopolitical events keeps the price steady above $1300 handle.
The early price action suggests investors are being cautious about buying strength because of concerns over valuation. If buyers continue to take control then then look for a rally to build later in the session on a sustained move over today’s intraday high at 25622. Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time and today’s higher-high, turning lower for the session will put the E-mini Dow in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.
Stock markets in America continue to grind, as we see plenty of reasons to think we are going to go in both directions. At this point, the buyers have certainly taken over in general, so I like the idea of buying, but obviously you will have to pick your places.
The combination of the OPEC-led production cuts, the increased reduction by the Saudis and in a limited way, the sanctions against Venezuela are helping to underpin prices, but in order to put the market over the top, demand is going to have to increase.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the April Comex gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at $1313.10 to $1313.00. This area provided support earlier in the session.
Despite the weaker outlook, and an indication that the next move in interest rates could be lower, the New Zealand Dollar is soaring against the U.S. Dollar early Wednesday. This suggests a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction to an oversold market.
The British pound fell again during the trading session initially during the trading session on Tuesday but then turned around of form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign, and if we can break above the top of it it’s likely that we could continue to go higher. Beyond that, there are a couple of technical indicators coming in to play.
The Aussie dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, bouncing from the 0.7050 level, an area that begins significant support down to the 0.70 level. Beyond that, I also see massive support all the way down to the 0.68 level. We are at an area where a lot of value hunters continue to come back in.
Strong Case for Gold over Bonds and Stocks? Bernstein Thinks SoGold’s gains Gold’s price (GLD) saw its fourth consecutive positive monthly return in January. It rose ~3% in the month after its rise of 4.9% in December. The major driver of
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Gold has seen a widespread, strong, and sustained value appreciation around the globe against 72 currencies in the past two decades, according to Ross Norman, CEO of London-based bullion broker Sharps Pixley.
Gold is doing everything to defend the 1307 USD/oz support. The latest technical formation here is the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The price closing above the mid-term horizontal resistance on the 1315 USD/oz and the neckline (purple), will be a strong signal to go long.