(Bloomberg) -- The pound advanced to the highest level in three months as anticipation grows that the U.K. and European Union may strike a trade deal soon.Sterling rose as much as 0.6%, sending the currency above $1.34 for the first time since September. Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin told the Irish Times he’s hopeful for a Brexit deal by the end of the week, echoing similar comments by French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune.“There are reports that a EU-U.K. trade deal will be struck in the next few days,” said Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank. “Although we have heard this before, given the time needed for the EU to ratify the deal, this week is widely considered to be the final push.”With time running short to ratify any agreement before the transition period ends on Dec. 31, momentum is building for a pact. Rabobank expects a “skinny” deal, meaning “we don’t expect much by way of a sustainable relief rally on the news,” Foley said.The pound’s advance on Tuesday comes after a 2.9% last month, the best November for the currency since 2006. It was spurred by relief the U.K. and EU seemed willing to negotiate a deal and on optimism over the developments of several Covid-19 vaccinations.Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index suffered its worst November on record and fell below 1140 for the first time since 2018. The gauge dropped as much as 0.4% as of 11:02 a.m. in London, with a trader in Europe adding that early dollar-selling flows helped bolster the pound.The base case scenario for markets is that the U.K. and EU will have a trade agreement of sorts. That’s why analysts in a Bloomberg survey last month said the pound will likely rise to $1.35 by mid-2021 in the event of a Brexit trade deal, a relatively small move compared to the 5% drop they anticipate if negotiations fall through.With a deal priced in, options traders are bracing for a drop in the currency over the next week on concern the rally may have run its course. They sent the cost of hedging a decline in sterling to the highest in two months. Leveraged funds increased their sterling net shorts to levels not seen since the beginning of August, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
GBP/USD managed to get back above 1.3350 and is trying to get to another test of the major resistance at 1.3400.
It’s a busy day ahead. Economic data puts the EUR, Loonie, and the Dollar in Focus. Brexit updates draw plenty of interest for the Pound.