The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade Tuesday, moving close to a one-week low, as traders eased expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike by a full percentage point this month. The dollar has been gradually retreating from its multi-year high as expectations of a super-sized tightening by the Fed at the end of July have been reined in, especially after two of the most hawkish FOMC members – James Bullard and Chris Waller – said that their base case was still a 75 basis point move. “We doubt that between now and the 27 July FOMC meeting, markets will seriously reconsider a 100bp increase; first, because the Committee has entered its blackout period, and there are therefore no speakers until next week and second, because the U.S .data flow is set to be mostly second-tier this week,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
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