|Day's range||1.135 - 1.139|
|52-week range||1.13495 - 1.19983|
Investing.com - The euro was trading at more than one-year lows on Monday as a crash in the Turkish lira roiled global markets amid fears that the country’s financial crisis could spread to European markets.
First one is the Currency market, with the EURCHF. Most recently, EURCHF broke the lower line of the wedge and the neckline of the H&S formation. With this, we should be aiming lower to the long-term up trendline and the horizontal support on the 66.6 USD/bbl.
Unless breaking seven-week old ascending trend-line, at 0.9890 now, the USDCHF is less likely to extend its recent pullback towards 0.9850 and the 0.9820 support-levels. Alike USDCHF, the EURCHF’s downside is also capped by the immediate support, herein it is the 1.1595-85 zone, that may trigger the pair’s U-turn towards nearby TL resistance figure of 1.1615. GBPCHF’s recovery from nine-month old ascending trend-line may support the pair to aim for the 1.3125 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3165 but a downward slanting TL stretched since April can confine its further upside around 1.3210.
One of the most technical setups can be seen on the USDCHF, where Friday ended with a bearish shooting star pattern. The place, where this pattern is present is not random as it is a long-term horizontal resistance (orange). In the smaller time frames, that shooting star is additionally shaped like the head and shoulders formation, which strengtheners the sell signal.
The European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi was speaking at the banking conference event in Portugal last week. The main take away from the speech was that the ECB president promised that the ECB would take time to hike interest rates.
The breakaway gap in the Euro (in this article, we use “Euro” to refer to the currency pair EUR/USD) on the 24th of April 2017 on the back of positive first round French election results that weekend broke through a resistance trendline from 2014, a 5-month ascending triangle and the 200-day moving average. It heralded a reversal in the trend of the Euro and what followed was a near 1-year rally that took the price from 1.087 to a high of 1.2558, a rise of 15.5%. After consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, the Euro broke to the downside and has been falling for over a month now.
Eurozone inflation that’s creeping up toward the European Central Bank’s target and Italy’s political crisis could pull policy makers in opposite directions, and the struggle could spell further weakness for the euro. Core inflation stood at 1.1%, higher than the 1% number expected.
Though there still remains a significant amount of uncertainty, recent populist movements in Italy have created the possibility of ending the national use of the Euro. Naturally, as a nation of over 60 million and the third largest nation in the Eurozone (after Germany and France), Italy’s abandonment of the Euro could spark a wide variety of far-reaching changes.
Investing.com -The euro rebounded from ten month lows against the dollar on Wednesday, erasing the previous day’s losses as financial markets recovered from a steep selloff sparked by political turmoil in Italy.
Investing.com -The euro rose back above the $1.16 level on Wednesday as it recovered after falling to multi-month lows the previous day as fears over political turmoil in Italy roiled markets.
Investing.com - The euro bounced off the worst levels of the day on Tuesday after comments by the leader of Italy’s Five Star political party calmed investors’ concerns over the prospect of an Italian exit from the euro zone.
The start of the week’s trading took place around excitement in the political situation in Italy and the unsuccessful attempts of Crude Oil to rebound.
Investing.com - The euro fell to its lowest level since November against the dollar on Tuesday as political turmoil in Italy and Spain weighed, while the safe haven yen posted broad gains amid widespread risk aversion.
Early Monday trading has seen the downward pressure continue for oil prices. Italian stocks rise on prospects of new elections, and Italian bonds strengthen as the populist coalition fails to form a government.
Traditional haven currencies, such as Japan’s yen and, to a lesser extent, the Swiss franc, were on the rise on Wednesday as trade and geopolitical concerns came back into focus and the selloff in high-yielding emerging markets assets intensified. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he wasn’t happy with how trade talks between the U.S. and China were progressing, and said the much anticipated U.S.-North Korea summit planned for next month in Singapore might not go ahead as planned, which sent ripples through global financial markets. The Swiss franc, which is also considered a haven currency though its moves tend to be more muted, rose 0.5% against the (EURCHF).
The Ecofin meetings are a major event in the EU, with leaders from all member states attending each time that they are held. How could the meeting affect the euro?
Considering USDCHF’s latest U-turn from near 50-day SMA, the pair seems all set to challenge the 0.9565-70 area with 0.9535 being immediate resistance to tackle. In case if the pair manage to surpass the 0.9570 mark on a daily closing basis, the 0.9600 & the 0.9640 are likely following numbers to please the buyers ahead of questioning their strength by 200-day SMA level of 0.9660, adjacent to 0.9665-70 horizontal-line. Given the pair’s inability to sustain latest recovery, the 0.9455 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.9415 might entertain short-term sellers. ...
The Euro has continued to face headwinds versus the U.S Dollar short term. While range trading may prevail today, this will vanish as the U.S Fed’s monetary policy decision draws closer on Wednesday.
The Euro has been able to achieve noteworthy gains the past two days against the U.S Dollar, but trading volumes remain light and strong resistance looms ahead.
Wednesday is a FED day and all investors are waiting for the rate decision, statement and the economic projections from the FOMC. Obviously, all that is based on the technical analysis and it all can be easily canceled and declined by the FOMC. The support line is under the pressure recently and the buyers cannot create a bounce.